CPL preview - Trinbago Knight Riders
Bookies favourites, Trinbago Knight Riders get underway on the opening day of the CPL, facing Guyana Amazon Warriors in the first game of the tournament. The fact they’re favourites is unsurprising, after they went unbeaten in last season’s campaign, on their way to a second CPL tournament in three seasons. They’ll be under the same captain/coach combination once again, with Kieron Pollard as captain and Brendon McCullum as coach.
It was an extraordinary campaign for TKR last time out, showing dominance we haven’t quite seen before in a franchise competition. Winning 12 games in a row is impressive in any format or sport, let alone a format with as much volatility as t20 cricket.
I feel like there is a bit of a misconception as to how TKR went about their business last season, with plenty assuming they just abused the conditions that they had in front of them. In any case, that would’ve been perfectly acceptable, however they didn’t even do that:
As you can see from the above, they did bowl the highest % of spin but it was fairly close and they bowled less than 1% more than Barbados, the team with the second highest % of deliveries bowled by spinners. Their spinners were good but they weren’t the best in the competition, Guyana and Jamaica both had a more economical spin attack and Saint Lucia’s were the best in terms of wicket taking.
It was actually their batting that gave them the biggest edge, as they excelled at playing spin in difficult conditions and death overs hitting. Though they were above average in basically all batting stats last season, those two areas in particular they were in a different league to the rest of the competition.
In terms of their squad it’s fairly similar to the one they had last season. They’ll have 12 players returning from the squad last season, with a couple of changes coming amongst the overseas contingent.
Squad:
Out: Sikandar Raza, Fawad Ahmed, Amir Jangoo, Dwayne Bravo & Pravin Tambe.
In: Yasir Shah, Isuru Udana, Leonardo Julien, Ravi Rampaul & Denesh Ramdin.
TKR haven’t really had any major squad disruption through lack of availability, at least in comparison to some teams anyway. They’ve managed to keep three of their first choice overseas, the only major loss is losing Sandeep Lamichhane, he has been replaced by Yasir Shah. The other overseas replacement is Tim Seifert coming in for Sikandar Raza, Seifert is a player who has been part of the TKR squad before.
The other major loss to the squad is the experienced Dwayne Bravo, as he and TKR came to a mutual agreement, allowing him to leave to experience a different challenge. As part of the deal Denesh Ramdin returns to TKR, after a year with St Kitts & Nevis.
Emerging players: Leonardo Julien & Jayden Seales
Leonardo Julien is a wicket keeper batter, who has yet to make his t20 debut. However he was part of the Team Abu Dhabi squad in the t10 tournament earlier in the year, making one appearance. With the returning Denesh Ramdin as well as Tim Seifert, his opportunities could be limited.
Seales chances of playing are much brighter, the 19 year old quick has burst onto the scene in test matches this year and made his CPL debut last season. He played six games and although he was very expensive, going at 11 runs per over, he showed wicket taking ability, taking eight wickets in the 13 overs he bowled. Pitches weren’t exactly suited to pace bowling last year, TKR will be hoping his returns are much better this year. He could possibly be rotated with Ravi Rampaul or make his case to be in the XI every game if TKR decide to play an extra bowler.
Even though I said his chances of playing are probably slim, TKR could easily fit Julien into the XI if they needed to get some games out of their emerging players. Denesh Ramdin is likely to be first choice keeper, however I don’t expect him to be given a hugely important role with the bat and he’ll most likely bat at 7 in my opinion. So that’s an easy swap for TKR to make if Seales can’t force his way into the XI.
Khary Pierre and Akeal Hosein will be competing for a spot in the XI, at least at the start of the tournament I don’t expect them to be playing in the same side. Akeal Hosein had better numbers in the CPL last year, taking 10 wickets at an economy of 5.56 and strike rate of 16.2, compared to 9 wickets at 6.68 rpo with a strike rate of 21.4 for Pierre. The form of Hosein earned him ODI and t20 call ups to the West Indies side and although he struggled to make an impact in t20’s so far, he impressed in ODI series against Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and West Indies.
The other selection issues are mainly concerned with how they balance their bowling line up. Udana will play as he gives them a left arm option as well as some extra batting depth, along with Narine who is also guaranteed to be in the XI. So with those two and one of the slow left arm bowlers in the XI, it most likely leaves two spots. With four main options in Rampaul, Ali Khan, Seales and Yasir Shah. For me I wouldn’t want to go in with only two main pace options, without knowing how the pitches are going to play intially. Therefore I’d be picking two of Rampaul, Seales and Ali Khan. With Rampaul and Ali Khan probably the most likely combination for them to go with intially.
Potential XI:
Personally I think this is the style of XI that gives TKR the best balance. Utilising Pollard as the sixth bowler, allows them to play an extra batter. If they didn’t and instead went with an extra bowler, I think it would leave them a little light from a batting point of view. Having Udana at 7, as well as having Narine at the top of the order would leave them short on resources from my point of view.
Despite many franchises ditching the Narine at the top order experiment, I think TKR might still stick with it. Based on Windies matches, Pollard seems to like having a LHB/RHB combo at the top of the order and I think they’ll keep Munro at 3, which is where he has mostly batted for teams recently. Seifert at 4 seems to be a good fit, with decent numbers against spin and through the middle overs. Darren Bravo also has better numbers at 5 than at 4 in recent CPL seasons. Pollard will float up and down the order and will just come in when the situation suits him best, Ramdin could move ahead of him in the order if needed.
Strengths:
Batting against spin - TKR have a lot of players with high balls per dismissal rates against spin and when you combine that with the fast scoring of Pollard & Narine against spin it’s a good mixture. Particularly in the CPL, where spin bowling is so prevalant.
Boundary hitters - Four players with above average boundary percentages. Narine, Pollard and Munro all have boundary percentages above 20% and Lendl Simmons has a respectable 19%.
LHB/RHB combo’s throughout - Three RHB’s and three LHB’s in the top 6 means they shouldn’t get bogged down by match ups, particularly against spin.
Pollard - It seems absurd to label an individual player as a strength but with Pollard it has to be the case. He has been so far ahead of other batters in the tournament. Across the last three seasons of CPL he has the highest average and highest strike rate of batters to face at least 300 balls:
Weaknesses:
Player age - Not necessarily always a negative but having an older squad is always a bit of a risk, you never know when you might start seeing drop offs in performance levels as players pass their peak age. The XI above has nine players aged 30 or above, including seven players aged 33 or above, which does seem a bit risky. Particularly when you consider the nature of this tournament, with so many games being crammed into a short space of time.
Lack of a wrist spinner? - They do have Yasir Shah but he looks like a big drop off from Sandeep Lamichhane. Yasir hasn’t played much t20 cricket in the last couple of years and his strike rate of just over 26, is the second worst for any leg spinner that has bowled more than 500 balls since the start of 2018.
Death overs bowling - Rampaul has great numbers in this phase but lack of cricket could be a problem for him. If he doesn’t step up their other options look average, Udana and Ali Khan both go at well over 9 runs per over at the death.
Player Notes
Lendl Simmons - Solid opener, had an excellent CPL campaign in 2019 and was solid last year given the conditions. Very good against the ball turning in, averaging 60 and striking at over 150. Can be a slow starter.
Sunil Narine - Dwindling returns with the bat over the last couple of years. Still capable of playing dangerous cameo’s though and if he can play a few of them in a season, he is performing his role. With the ball he has still got it and was the 5th most economical bowler in the hundred competition. He perhaps isn’t the force he once was but is still a player with obvious upside.
Colin Munro - Another reliable performer, who has spent the last 5 seasons at TKR. 1006 runs in the last three CPL seasons at an average of over 40 and strike rate in the mid 130’s can’t be sniffed at, a tally of runs that is only bettered by Glenn Phillips. Has a pretty good record against spin but has been slightly slower scoring against it in the CPL, striking at 116 but his average of 44 is the 2nd highest of anyone to have faced at least 150 balls against spin in the last three seasons of CPL.
Tim Seifert - Even though he hasn’t been in the best of form over the last 12–18 months, I still feel like him replacing Raza is a plus, as they need an extra batter in their line up. As I already mentioned he is a decent player of spin and looks a good fit at number 4 in this line up.
Darren Bravo - Strike rate of 111 batting at four and 138 batting at five in the last three CPL seasons, he has batted 14 times in both positions. A strong six hitter but has a mediocre boundary percentage. Good at avoiding dismissals against spin, though he only strikes at 110. Hopefully batting lower down the order will eliminate some of the slower starts he sometimes has.
Kieron Pollard - Legend of the format, whenever you think he might be dropping off slightly he comes back with a bang, none more so than his six sixes in an over against Sri Lanka earlier this year. Striking at 185 in 2020 & 21 and hitting a six every six balls, as well as striking at 225 in the death overs since the start of 2020. Outrageous numbers. His CPL numbers aren’t bad either, averaging over 50 and striking at just under 170 in the last three seasons. Might have to bowl fairly regularly this season, best utilised through the middle overs or at the death if they’re desperately short of options.
Denesh Ramdin - Can’t quite work out why TKR decided to sign him unless they felt like they needed a specialist keeper. Very slow scorer against spin, only two players that have faced 250+ balls against spin since 2018 have scored at a slower rate. Has okay numbers in the death overs, so I expect him to be down the order this season.
Isuru Udana - Looks like a nice signing to give the team a bit of balance, if he is batting at 8. Batting at 7 would be a place too high, especially with Narine in the team. Tends to bowl in all phases and could be used in a variety or roles. I expect he’ll be used in 1–1–2 or 1–2–1 role.
Akeal Hosein - Could be either him or Pierre but I don’t expect both SLA bowlers to play together in many games, if any this season. Bowled a lot in the powerplay last season but that could’ve been as a result of the conditions, will be interesting to see how he is used this season.
Ali Khan - A success story of franchise cricket, got his breakthrough in the 2018 CPL and has been a regular in the tournament ever since. Strong powerplay numbers in the CPL, economy rate of just over 7 and strike rate of 16 in his 52 powerplay overs across the last three CPL seasons. Bowls over 50% of his deliveries in the powerplay.
Ravi Rampaul - On the face of it, you’d look at his numbers in the powerplay/death overs and think Rampaul is an excellent signing. While his numbers are excellent, he also hasn’t played a t20 game in nearly two years and at the age of 36 that would be a concern for me. Then you also have the fact that all of his t20 matches since 2018 have been in the t20 blast. Overall, I think it’s a decent signing but perhaps not as good as the numbers make it look.
Yasir Shah - I don’t think he’ll be used loads in the first half of the tournament, TKR already have two SLA bowlers and Narine to pick from and in general I prefer their team balance with the other overseas players in the team. Has a chance for selection if pitches deteriorate and start to spin more as the tournament goes on.
Khary Pierre - As already mentioned, could be a toss up between him and Akeal Hosein. It will be a tough decision for the TKR management to make. Pierre is another spin bowler that bowls a large percentage of his deliveries in the powerplay. Also has a fairly similar record against LHB’s and RHB’s, which is always a positive for a finger spinner.
Anderson Phillip - Mediocre numbers in his t20 career so far and I expect him to mainly be a back up pace bowler this season.
Tion Webster - Top order batter that scored 143 runs in seven innings last season at a strike rate of under 100. I’m not anticipating that he’ll get close to that amount of games this year as TKR have plenty of top order options in Narine, Munro, Seifert and Simmons.
Overall I think TKR still look like one of the stronger teams in the tournament, even if conditions might suit their bowling line up a bit less this season. I prefer the balance of their side now they’ve got Seifert as an overseas player again and if he plays, I think it gives them enough batting depth.
The age of players in their squad is still a concern for me with the amount of games that will be played in a short space of time and their squad depth will likely be challenged. Even still they remain a team with plenty of match winners and a couple of very reliable top order players. I expect them to be in the top two come the end of the group stages.
Thanks for reading!
Stats: cricmetric
