T20 Blast - North Group
In the t20 Blast, the 18 counties are split into two groups - North and South:
Each team plays 14 games in the group stage, playing every team at least once and six of the other teams in their group twice. The top four teams in each group qualify for the quarter final and the winners of these quarter finals then make it to finals day - one of the best days in the cricketing calendar, where two semi-finals & the final are played on the same day, which is almost always held at Edgbaston.
There’s no distinct advantage to finishing at the top of the group (other than a home quarter final), which leads to an element of randomness in the knockout rounds. In the 20 seasons of T20 Blast that we’ve had so far, there’s been 13 different winners and no team has won it more than three times. Durham, Derbyshire, Glamorgan, Gloucestershire and Yorkshire are the five counties that have never won it, can any of those mount a challenge this season?
Last season
Prior to last season, there’d been a few more subdued seasons in the Blast, where scoring rates were lower than anticipated, perhaps due to Covid and the impact that had on pitch preparation. This definitely wasn’t the case last season, with a batting economy rate upwards of 8rpo, for the first time since 2018:
Sixes were also hit more regularly than in any of the other previous five seasons, based on a lot of the overseas recruitment and the English talent pool, I think we can expect similar again this year. There were also more scores of 200+ than we’ve seen before:
And it was also the season with the highest average 1st innings score/average 1st innings winning score:
All in all, it was a very high scoring competition, with batters dominating the competition. However, bowling still had a part to play and unsurprisingly the team with most economical bowling attack were eventual winners - Hampshire:
Their recovery was remarkable, after losing their first four matches, they won 12 of their next 13, to win their third t20 blast title. Bowling, specifically, pace bowling was at the forefront of their success, with the likes of James Fuller and Nathan Ellis standing out. Ellis had a remarkable tournament, going at under 7rpo overall, including 6.79 rpo in the final five overs of games (19 overs bowled), which was the best for a pace bowler in the competition. Other teams that impressed with the ball included Surrey, Gloucestershire and Leicestershire.
On the other end of the spectrum, Derbyshire leaked runs with the ball, going at 9.35 rpo. Their struggles with the ball were highlighted in the quarter finals where they conceded 265 vs Somerset. Northants, Worcestershire and Yorkshire were the only other teams to go at more than 9 rpo.
From a batting point of view, Birmingham, Somerset, Yorkshire, Notts & Northants were the standouts, with Somerset posting ridiculous numbers vs spin:
Taunton (their home venue) is well-known for being a graveyard for spinners, however, those numbers are still ridiculously impressive. The impact of Taunton is evident when looking at the % of deliveries bowled by spinners, with Somerset bowling just 20.4%, around 19% below the tournament average.
Phase stats:
Team previews
Birmingham Bears
Last season: Finished 1st in the group, winning 9/14 completed matches - lost in quarter finals
Win percentage last three seasons: 55.3%
Overseas players: Glenn Maxwell (Paul Stirling) & Hasan Ali.
Top run scorers last season: Adam Hose (557), Sam Hain (388) & Chris Benjamin (354).
Top wicket takers last season: Jake Lintott (22), Carlos Brathwaite (19) & Danny Briggs (18).
Home venue: Edgbaston
- Chasing win percentage = 44% since 2018.
- Average first innings score = 171, average first innings winning score = 186 (since 2018).
- Slightly above average in terms of scoring rates but was higher scoring last season, which was probably more reflective of the venue dynamics. Hosting quite a few games in the Covid season, in addition to hosting finals day every season drags the overall scoring rate down.
- Often has one smaller square boundary, with centre wickets being saved for test matches/finals day, meaning LHB/RHB partnerships can be particularly important.
Squad changes:
- In: Moeen Ali & Ed Barnard.
- Out: Adam Hose & Olly Stone.
Birmingham have one of the most high profile overseas players in the Blast in the form of Glenn Maxwell, who is currently having an excellent IPL campaign - striking at over 180. The middle order role was one that Birmingham needed to fill after losing Adam Hose to Worcestershire.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Paul Stirling*, Chris Woakes (Eng), Jacob Bethell, Craig Miles & Rob Yates.
Availability could be a little complicated for Birmingham at the start of the tournament with Moeen Ali and Glenn Maxwell still on IPL duty, while Hasan Ali may also be a doubt, after picking up an injury in a 2nd XI game. There’s a chance that Chris Woakes could be available for 1–2 games, before heading off to England duty on June 1st:
The likely changes for the initial games would be Paul Stirling, Jacob Bethell and Chris Woakes coming into the XI, potentially bringing about a shuffle in the batting order:
When at full strength, the batting order is quite difficult to predict, with lots of players that would prefer to bat in the middle order. It seems likely that Alex Davies and Moeen Ali will open, while Sam Hain will move up one place to number 3, having batted at number 4 in almost 80% of his innings in the last three seasons, however, none of this is certain to happen.
Team strengths:
- Strong batting side - It’s not uncommon for teams to be good batting sides in the t20 blast, though it’s quite rare for a team to be equally impressive against both pace & spin. This is what Birmingham managed to do last season - scoring at an above average rate vs both bowling types.
- Spin variety - Birmingham already had a nice spin attack with Jake Lintott and Danny Briggs as their frontline duo. This season they’ll have Moeen Ali and Glenn Maxwell as additional options and although they’re both off-spinners, they’re very different styles of bowlers and could potentially bowl in the same game together.
- Batting depth - As well as a solid batting order, Birmingham also have good depth. Many of their bowlers (Barnard, Woakes, Hasan Ali, Briggs & Lintott) have decent boundary hitting ability, which will allow them to play the aggressive style of cricket that they often try to.
Team weaknesses:
- Vulnerable opening partnerships - This was an issue for Birmingham last season, with their opening batters averaging 17, which was the lowest in the tournament. Paul Stirling had a decent tournament, scoring 313 runs (SR 174) in 13 innings, outside of that, the other options they tried, struggled, with Bethell, Davies & Yates failing to nail down a place in the XI, managing just 196 runs (SR 129, AV 12) in 17 innings between them. Once again, the opening partnership doesn’t look the most settled this year and the middle order could have a tough job on their hands.
- Pace attack - They had a reasonable pace attack last season but have since lost Olly Stone, who was their standout bowler by a distance, going at 7.81 rpo, where as their other pace bowlers went at 9.35 rpo. Hasan Ali has the potential to do well in the t20 Blast but I doubt his performances will be as consistent as what we saw from Stone last season. Powerplay bowling could be a particular issue this season, especially with limited involvement from Chris Woakes.
- Availability - I think having a settled squad last season was one of the main reasons for their success (finished top of the group). Birmingham only used 14 players and were regularly able to field a similar XI, there looks to be a bit more disruption this season, which could impact the consistency of player roles within the team.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: I’d still expect Birmingham to finish in the top four, though I’m not as optimistic as I was about them last season. Losing Adam Hose and Olly Stone is a big blow, both were key components of the team last season and they also have availability issues to start the tournament.
Derbyshire Falcons
Last season: Finished 3rd in the group, winning 9/14 completed matches - lost in the quarter finals.
Win percentage last three seasons: 41.4%
Overseas players: Haider Ali, Zaman Khan & Suranga Lakmal.
Top run scorers last season: Shan Masood (543), Wayne Madsen (498) & Leus du Plooy (340).
Top wicket takers last season: George Scrimshaw (23), Matthew Mckiernan (17) & Hayden Kerr (15).
Home venue: The Incora County Ground (aka Racecourse Ground)
- Chasing win percentage = 52.4% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 167, average 1st inns winning score = 173.
- Has been a much higher scoring ground in the last two seasons, with an economy rate of 8.41 rpo.
- Short straight boundaries can make it tough for spinners.
Squad changes:
- In: Zak Chappell, Matthew Lamb & Aneurin Donald (short-term loan).
- Out: Dustin Melton, Michael Cohen & Alex Hughes.
Haider Ali has generally struggled in t20’s over the last couple of years, the T20 Blast could be a good opportunity for him to showcase the talent that was so obvious when he was breaking through in PSL 2020.
Zaman Khan is a great signing, who seems to be going from strength to strength as a t20 bowler - playing a key role in Lahore Qalandar’s title defence earlier this year and then going on to make his debut for Pakistan soon after. He also holds an impressive stat currently, no other pace bowler is conceding sixes less often than him in the last few years:
He’s mainly made a name for himself as a later overs bowlers so far but he’ll also be needed with the new ball for Derbyshire, which could be good for his development.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Suranga Lakmal*, Sam Conners, Ben Aitchison, Harry Came, Alex Thomson & Anuj Dal.
One of the major debates surrounding the Derbyshire XI is how they decide to utilise Haider Ali. Based on the 2nd XI matches that have been played, it looks like he’ll open, which could be good for his development, though I’d probably prefer him batting at number 3. Although, I can see why they’d open with him, given that they’ve already got a settled duo at number 3 & 4 (Madsen & Du Plooy), both of whom had very good seasons last time out.
Brooke Guest is an injury doubt for the initial matches and Derbyshire have signed Aneurin Donald on a short-term loan deal as cover, who has already played as a keeper for them in a 2nd XI game.
The only other selection debate is likely to be for the final pace bowling slot, with Zak Chappell, Sam Conners and Ben Aitchison all competing for that position. I think new signing Zak Chappell will get the nod initially.
Team strengths:
- Batting against spin - Haider, Madsen and Du Plooy are all strong players of spin. Particularly Madsen, who has an absurdly good record against spin of late, scoring 404 runs from 249 deliveries, with only four dismissals since the start of 2020. He plays the various sweep shots particularly well. Haider isn’t as well-rounded vs all spin types, however, he has an impressive record against wrist spin.
- Strike rotation - Derbyshire’s home venue isn’t a particularly large ground but they do have some excellent strike rotators. Madsen, Du Plooy and Brooke Guest are amongst the best in the competition in this regard.
- Availability - With the exception of Mark Watt - who’ll miss some games later in the tournament due to Scotland duty, Derbyshire otherwise have solid availability for the blast. Key players such as Madsen, Du Plooy, Scrimshaw, as well as overseas duo - Haider Ali & Zaman Khan, will be available for the duration of the tournament.
Team weaknesses:
- Batting depth - It’s a strong top order but after that there isn’t much in the way of proven t20 batters. Derbyshire look to be one of the weaker sides in terms of batting depth in the competition.
- Spin attack - This could be a big issue once Mark Watt departs, leaving Mattie McKiernan as the only frontline spinner. Derbyshire already had the most expensive spin attack in the tournament last season and they haven’t really improved it between seasons.
- Powerplay bowling options - Zaman Khan and George Scrimshaw are both good pace bowlers, though you’d say both are more effective outside of the powerplay. This leaves them looking a little short on resources for the first six overs. Mark Watt has bowled fairly regularly in this phase but his record isn’t the best.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: There’s still plenty to like about this Derbyshire side, featuring a strong top four and an exciting pace attack through the middle/death overs. Overall though, I feel they’re a slightly weaker side than last season and will struggle to replace the volume of runs that Shan Masood scored for them in the Blast last year. I think they’ll fall just short of the top four.
Durham
Last season: Finished 8th in the group, winning 3/13 completed matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 34.3%
Overseas players: David Bedingham
Top run scorers last season: Michael Jones (319), Graham Clark (280) & Ollie Robinson (226).
Top wicket takers last season: AJ Tye (21), Ben Raine (15) & Liam Trevaskis (13).
Home venue: Riverside Ground (aka Chester-le-Street)
- Chasing win percentage = 50% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 160, average 1st inns winning score = 172.
- One of the biggest grounds in the country, strike rotation is more valuable here thna at most other grounds.
- Can be very difficult to accelerate through the middle overs/at the death - lowest scoring rates between overs 7 & 16, 3rd lowest between 17 & 20 (since 2018).
Squad changes:
- In: Ollie Robinson, Ben McKinney, Nathan Sowter, Brandon Glover & Bas de Leede.
- Out: Sean Dickson, Matt Salisbury & Chris Rushworth.
In terms of their ‘local’ players, Durham have certainly boosted their squad depth for white ball cricket this season. Brandon Glover and Bas de Leede are smart pieces of recruitment, while Robinson & Sowter have both joined, after featuring for Durham in part of the t20 blast last season. Although he might not be a regular this season, Ben McKinney is a big talent - an aggressive top order batter who captained England u19’s in their tour of Australia last winter. If I were a coach at Durham, I’d be tempted to get him in the team already.
Their overseas player situation isn’t quite so strong. As things stand, David Bedingham is the only overseas player they have available for the t20 blast, a significant drop-off from the duo of Ashton Turner & AJ Tye last season. They did have a deal in place to bring in Tristan Stubbs but his selection for the South Africa ‘A’ squad means he’s unavailable.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Paul Coughlin, Ben McKinney & Scott Borthwick.
Ben Stokes, Mark Wood and Matty Potts are unlikely to feature much, if at all, due to their involvement with the England test side. Durham are used to dealing with this, though they’ll be hoping Potts will be around for a few games.
The likely involvement of Alex Lees complicates things, potentially meaning that Bas de Leede would have to bat lower down the order, either at 4, with Bedingham/Robinson sliding down a further spot or at 6/7. This would take him away from the number 3 role that he’s typically occupied for the Netherlands.
Brydon Carse is a doubt, after picking up an injury in a county championship match. Paul Coughlin would come in for him. Losing Carse would certainly be a big blow as he’s the quickest bowler in the squad (not including Mark Wood) and also offers a reliable batting option lower down the order.
Team strengths:
- Batting depth - Durham have an XI that features a lot of ‘all-rounder’ style players. As a result, they should have impressive batting depth, with Trevaskis potentially carded at 9, though he’ll likely be floated up & down the order, depending on the situation.
- Squad depth - As touched on earlier, they’ve made some good additions, making them a much stronger squad overall. Whereas in past seasons, there’s often been red ball players in the XI to make up the numbers.
- Powerplay utilisers - Graham Clark and Michael Jones are two players that’ll take risks in the powerplay, looking to exploit the fielding restricitions. This could be particularly beneficial at a bigger ground like the Riverside, where it’s more difficult to accelerate/hit boundaries through the middle/later overs.
Team weaknesses:
- Messy batting order - Alex Lees is going to be available this year and this could make the batting order a little clogged. There’s a lot of top order players and number 7/8’s that need to be fitted into one team, a lack of middle order specialists could be an issue for Durham.
- Death overs hitting - A potential injury to Brydon Carse and the unavailability of Stubbs leaves them looking a bit thin on hitting power towards the backend of an innings.
- Powerplay bowling - Considering their home venue, Durham were fairly weak with the ball in the powerplay last season - going at 8.9 rpo, which was 0.7 rpo more than they managed with the bat. If Potts isn’t available much, powerplay bowling will likely be a weakness again.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Although they’ve improved the squad, I’m still not convinced Durham have enough to finish in the top four. Overall, they’re lacking a bit of star quality with the absence of any noteworthy overseas players and also the personnel missing on England duty. They could still announce an overseas signing(s) but as things stand, I don’t think they’ll finish in the top four.
Lancashire Lightning
Last season: Finished 2nd in Group, lost in final vs Hampshire.
Win percentage last three seasons: 60%
Overseas players: Daryl Mitchell, Colin de Grandhomme & Dane Vilas.
Top run scorers last season: Steven Croft (548), Dane Vilas (444) & Tim David (405).
Top wicket takers last season: Richard Gleeson (25), Tom Hartley (17) & Luke Wood (14).
Home venue: Old Trafford
- Chasing win percentage = 50% since 2018.
- Average 1st inns score = 166, average 1st inns winning score = 173.
- Had been a venue that massively favoured spin, with tricky batting conditions but there were signs of improvement last season:
The introduction of the Hundred has perhaps forced them to produce better quality pitches, which should help their batting unit, in theory.
- A large ground, with fairly big boundaries both square & straight of the wicket - highest non-boundary strike rate since 2018 and in the last two seasons.
Squad changes:
- In: Tom Aspinwall, Matthew Hurst & Harry Singh.
- Out: Liam Hurt.
There hasn’t really been any major squad changes for Lancashire. All of the newcomers are youth players that have been offered contracts. Of the three, Tom Aspinwall would be the most likely to feature, though there’s quite a few players ahead of him in the pecking order, he’s been bowling with good pace in 2nd XI matches. Losing Liam Hurst isn’t a major blow for the T20 Blast side either, as he rarely featured in recent years.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Dane Vilas*, Keaton Jennings, Luke Wells, Danny Lamb, George Bell & Tom Bailey.
In theory, the England trio of Buttler, Salt & Livingstone should be available for a large part of Lancashire’s t20 blast campaign. With Delhi Capitals and Punjab Kings already eliminated (teams of Salt & Livingstone) and Rajasthan Royals up against it. The final IPL group games take place this weekend, so there’s a chance that all three could be available for the Lancashire’s second group game, which takes place on May 25th. It’ll be interesting to see if they have a period of rest after the IPL, before getting into the Blast. Phil Salt would be the player that’s most likely to feature imminently.
Keaton Jennings, Luke Wells and George Bell are the potential replacments for those three players. A change in the batting order would also be possible, thanks to the versatility of Daryl Mitchell:
Luke Wells is also another option for the top order role, though I doubt they’d want to go with two LHB’s.
Team strengths:
- Top order batting - When the England trio becomes available, Lancashire have a ridiculous top order. Having Buttler, Salt and Livingstone in your top four is far too good for t20 blast level and Lancashire should be able to dominate opposition bowling attacks.
- Bowling attack - For the first time in a while, Lancashire can field what would be considered their strongest bowling attack. With Saqib Mahmood and Richard Gleeson seemingly over long-term injury issues, they’ll form a strong pace trio with Luke Wood.
- Spin variety - The duo of Hartley and Parkinson is one of the most reliable in the Blast and they can also call upon Livingstone with his off-spin/leg spin variety, his economy rates have been consistent in the t20 blast. Luke Wells can also offer something similar, for the games where Livingstone isn’t available.
Team weaknesses:
- Squad depth - The England trio will definitely miss some games and the drop off in quality from those three to the most likely backups is steep. The likes of Jennings and Wells can do a job but they’re far less destructive and Lancashire look like a fairly weak batting side when they don’t have the England trio.
- Weak batting depth - Hartley is an improving lower order hitter but having him carded at 7, with minimal batting ability to come after him isn’t ideal. More likely to be an issue when the England trio isn’t available.
- RH heavy batting unit - In the first choice XI there isn’t a frontline LHB, Hartley is the only option - he could be floated up and down the order but it feels unlikely. This isn’t ideal, considering the bigger square boundaries at Old Trafford and it can offer assistance to spinners, facing SLA could be a particular issue:
There isn’t really a player in the squad that can counter SLA with any sort of consistency, expect most teams to bowl at least four overs of SLA vs Lancashire.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Another top four finish should be expected for Lancashire this season. They aren’t perfect but having all of their key bowlers fit should ensure safe passage through to the quarter finals at minimum.
Leicestershire Foxes
Last season: Finished 6th in the group - won 8/14 matches but were handed a two point deduction due to player conduct.
Win percentage last three seasons: 50%
Overseas players: Naveen-Ul-Haq & Wiaan Mulder.
Top run scorers last season: Colin Ackeramnn (367), Arron Lilley (316) & Rishi Patel (228).
Top wicket takers last season: Naveen-Ul-Haq (24), Callum Parkinson (20) & Rehan Ahmed (19).
Home venue: Grace Road
- Chasing win percentage = 55.2% since 2018.
- Average 1st inns score = 166, average 1st inns winning score = 190.
- Pitch has often favoured spinners in the last couple of seasons.
Squad changes:
- In: Sol Budinger, Matt Salisbury & Josh Hull.
- Out: George Rhodes, Ben Mike, Hassan Azad, Sam Bates, Nat Bowley, Alex Evans, Gavin Griffiths & Abi Sakande.
Sol Budinger is a good addition for Leicestershire, giving them a much needed LH batting option in the XI, something they’ve really lacked in previous seasons. He should slot in at the top of the order and has a good record in 2nd XI t20’s - striking at 170 in the last two seasons.
Of the players that left, Ben Mike is undoubtedly the biggest loss. He was a player that gave good balance to the side, as a wicket taking bowling through the middle overs and a powerful hitter at the death.
Naveen-Ul-Haq is back for a third season with Leicestershire, after taking 50 wickets in the previous two. He’ll be a huge part of any success they plan to have - bowling almost 90% of his deliveries in the powerplay & at the death. Wiaan Mulder is a little underwhelming as the 2nd overseas player for t20’s, though he could do well with a more consistent role than he’s had in the past.
Possible XI:
Unless one of the frontline batters has keeping ability it looks like Leicestershire will have to play a ‘specialist keeper’ of sorts in the form of Lewis Hill, who has struck at 125, with an average of just 17 since the start of 2020.
Naveen-Ul-Haq will miss a couple of games, meaning Michael Finan and Roman Walker should both feature in the XI at the start of the tournament.
Team strengths:
- Spin options - Leicestershire have one of the better spin attacks in the group, which usually works fairly well at their home venue. Rehan Ahmed is the most exciting but Callum Parkinson is a solid operating, performing consistently on a yearly basis, while Colin Ackermann provides a good matchup option.
- More settled batting lineup - With the performances of Nick Welch towards the backend of last season, as well as the addition of Sol Budinger, the batting order looks much more settled this season.
Team weaknesses:
- Pace attack - They still look very reliant on Naveen, who has 50/97 wickets taken by Leicestershire in the past two seasons; the next highest is 22, by Ben Mike and he left the club between seasons. Michael Finan and Roman Walker have both done reasonably well in 2nd XI t20’s and one of them will need to fill the void left by Mike.
- Issues vs spin - There’s only one LH batting option in the XI and there’s lack of quality when it comes to facing spin. Middle over slowdowns have been an issue for Leicestershire in the past and they likely will be again this season.
- Finishing options - Ben Mike has left the club and hasn’t really been replaced. This leaves their lower order hitting looking weak. Rehan Ahmed can certainly bat but he doesn’t have the raw power that Mike possessed, managing a boundary percentage of 20% in the last two seasons.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Leicestershire have arguably punched above their weight in recent seasons, boasting a respectable win percentage of 50%, enough to keep them in and around the top four in each of the last three seasons. However, this time around I think they could drop off slightly. Other teams near them have improved and I’m not convinced they have.
Northants Steelbacks
Last season: Finished 7th in group - winning 6/12 completed matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 44.1%
Overseas players: Chris Lynn & AJ Tye.
Top run scorers last season: Chris Lynn (516), Josh Cobb (318) & Saif Zaib (311).
Top wicket takers last season: Ben Sanderson (16), Tom Taylor (15) & Freddie Heldreich (14).
Home venue: Wantage Road
- Chasing win percentage = 34.5% since 2018.
- Average 1st inns score = 184, average 1st inns winning score = 189.
- One of the higher scoring grounds recently.
Squad changes:
- In: David Willey, Ollie Sale & Hassan Azad.
- Out: Nathan Buck, Ben Curran & Brandon Glover.
Chris Lynn excelled for the county in last year’s T20 Blast, scoring 516 runs in just ten innings. He’ll be joined by fellow countrymen - AJ Tye, who has done well every time he’s been involved in the Blast, taking 67 wickets in the four seasons he’s featured in, with an economy of around 8 rpo. Tye certainly covers a gap in the squad from last season, when they really struggled as a pace bowling unit, going at 9.74 rpo (2nd worst in the tournament).
In a further boost to the pace attack, David Willey has rejoined his former county and will also captain the side - a genuine all-rounder at Blast level and it’s a huge coup for Northants to have him back involved.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Ricardo Vasconcelos, Tom Taylor, Alex Russell, Ollie Sale & Harry Gouldstone.
There’s quite a few spots up for grabs in the Northants XI, though the core they’ve assembled is impressive for Blast level. With the two overseas players, plus Cobb, Zaib & Willey there’s enough quality to mount a top four challenge this season. Personally, I’m hoping Emilio Gay gets a run at the top of the order, ahead of Vasconcelos but it isn’t certain by any means. Vasconcelos can keep, which could see him get the nod. This would allow them to get an extra bowling option into the XI, in the form of Tom Taylor.
Freddie Heldreich struggled last season but I’d expect him to start ahead of Alex Russell as the frontline wrist spinner. Graeme White is highly likely to play as the secondary spin option, also offering a bit of batting depth and should probably be highlighted in green, rather than orange.
Team strengths:
- LH/RH combinations - Northants look like one of the most balanced teams in this regard and should be able to maintain LH/RH partnerships throughout their innings.
- Improved pace attack - As mentioned earlier, only Derbyshire had a more expensive pace attack than Northants last season. They did play on some flat tracks but this was a poor outcome. They’ve made moves to reinforce this area with the signings of David Willey and AJ Tye. With the availability of pace bowlers for some other teams in the group, Northants might have one of the stronger pace attacks in the group now.
- Top order power - Lynn, Gay & Cobb all have the ability to be above average boundary hitters in the t20 blast. While Saif Zaib is a good player to have at number 4, as a LHB that can tackle both pace & spin, it’s a well-rounded and exciting top four that Northants have put together.
- Solid core - It’s a really good group of 5–6 players that will form the core of their team this season. It wouldn’t look out of place at one of the ‘bigger’ counties in the competition.
Team weaknesses:
- High pace options - The pace attack has improved significantly but they’re potentially lacking a high pace option. AJ Tye still hits decent speeds in the BBL, though he’s assisted by playing at the Optus Stadium. In the PSL earlier this year, he was rarely above 135 kmph. Ollie Sale is a bowler that can reach high speeds, though he’s been expensive in his t20 career thus far and I’m unsure on his current fitness status.
- Lacking a frontline spinner - Control through the middle overs is fairly important in the Blast, as most teams will have 2–3 batters that struggle to attack spin. If you have a good spinner, it can be an easy route to success. The lack of a frontline wrist spinner will be a concern for Northants, as Freddie Heldreich went at almost 9.5 rpo last season. Although, it’s worth noting he only bowled 12% of his deliveries vs LHB’s, which you’d assume would be his favoured matchup.
- Slow starters - Not many of the batters in the squad can accelerate from ball one, including Chris Lynn, who seemingly moved to number 3 in the Big Bash as a result of this. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares from this perspective in the Blast this year.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: I like their chances this year. They look like one of the more underrated sides in the group. If their core performs to its ability, they have a good chance of making the top four.
Notts Outlaws
Last season: Finished 5th in the group, winning 7/13 completed matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 74.3%
Overseas players: Shaheen Afridi & Colin Munro.
Top run scorers last season: Ben Duckett (396), Alex Hales (374) & Joe Clarke (305).
Top wicket takers last season: Jake Ball (18), Samit Patel (14) & Luke Fletcher (12).
Home venue: Trent Bridge
- Chasing win percentage = 40.9% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 178, average 1st inns winning score = 193.
- High scoring venue with small square boundaries, LH/RH combinations can be important.
- Pace off can work well, especially later in the tournament.
Squad changes:
- In: Olly Stone & Tom Loten.
- Out: Sol Budinger, Joey Evison & Zak Chappell.
A huge increase in the quality of overseas players turning out for Notts this year. Shaheen and Munro will be welcome upgrades on Paterson & Christian (their overseas players last year).
Notts have typically been a team that’s more reliant on their spin/off-pace bowlers, which can be a risky strategy at Trent Bridge, with the lopsided square boundaries. That shouldn’t be an issue this year, with the additions of Shaheen and also Olly Stone, who has joined from Warwickshire. However, Stone is currently out with an injury and his return date is unknown, Notts will be hoping to have him available for the second half of the campaign.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Calvin Harrison, Luke Fletcher & Liam Patterson-White.
The majority of the Notts XI picks itself if everyone is fit. The ‘number 7’ role would be the only debatable position; Lyndon James, Calvin Harrison, Liam Patterson-White and Tom Loten will compete for that role.
As mentioned earlier, there’s fitness concerns surrounding Olly Stone and potentially Jake Ball, who hasn’t featured in any of the 2nd XI t20’s yet. Luke Fletcher is the first choice replacement and if both are missing, Brett Hutton could also appear, though they may go down the spin heavy route with Calvin Harrison
Team strengths:
- Pace attack - If every player was fully fit, it would easily be the strongest pace attack in the group. Although, even if Olly Stone misses games, Notts should have the depth to cover for that, with Luke Fletcher as a decent replacement option. Powerplay bowling looks particularly strong, both Shaheen & Jake Ball are potent with the new ball.
- LH/RH combinations - Munro and Moores should ensure that Notts can maintain LH/RH partnerships through the middle overs, allowing them to exploit the often-lopsided boundaries at Trent Bridge.
- Top order - Even without Duckett, this is a strong top three. One that is typically fairly aggressive - Notts scored at 9.99 rpo in the powerplay last season, which was 1.72 rpo above the tournament average. It’s a top order that can also counter both pace & spin. Hales is perhaps the ‘weakest’ vs spin of the three but he has a strong record vs spin in the powerplay.
Team weaknesses:
- Batting depth - There’s hitting ability from the lower order but they’re perhaps lacking specialists. With the exception of the top three, all the other players in the squad average sub 25 since 2020. The top three is more than capable of carrying this batting unit and it has done before, however, if there’s a drop off in terms of the volume of runs they score, Notts could suffer. This was probably one of the main reasons why they missed out on the top 4 last season; Hales & Clarke went from averaging 40 in 2021 to 24 in 2022.
- Squad depth issues - It’s a strong group of 12 or 13 players but outside of that there isn’t much. They lost some of their more promising squad players between seasons - Budinger, Chappell and Evison could all have made an impact this season.
- No frontline wrist spinner - It looks like Calvin Harrison won’t be in the playing XI to start the tournament, meaning there’s no wrist spin option.
Prediction: Notts aren’t a flawless side but they’ve got an established core, with the added boost of greater quality in the overseas department this season. They’ll miss the pedigree of Ben Duckett, particularly with his attacking game against spin, he’s one of the most reliable players in the country in this regard. However, I still think there’s enough quality in the squad to finish in the top four.
Player stats sheet:
Worcestershire Rapids
Last season: Finished 9th in the group, winning 2/13 completed matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 30%
Overseas players: Michael Bracewell & Mitchell Santner.
Top run scorers last season: Colin Munro (323), Brett D’Oliveira (316) & Jack Haynes (235).
Top wicket takers last season: Pat Brown (14), Brett D’Oliveira (12) & DJ Bravo (8).
Home venue: New Road
- Chasing win percentage = 50% since 2018.
- Average 1st inns score = 172, average 1st inns winning score = 183.
- New Road has been a tougher place to bat in the last couple of years, with the scoring rate dropping below 8 rpo (4th lowest).
- Has been favourable for spinners, despite shorter straight boundaries. All games taking place in daylight (no floodlights at New Road) may help with that.
Squad changes:
- In: Adam Hose & Matthew Waite.
- Out: Moeen Ali, Ed Barnard, Tom Fell, Josh Dell, Jacques Banton & Charlie Morris.
Last season was a horrible one for Worcestershire, they were dreadful across the board and probably one of the worst sides we’ve seen in the T20 Blast recently - finishing the tournament with an economy differential of -1.79 (next lowest was -1.27). There’s still talent in their squad but it’s a long way off the team that reached back to back finals in 2018 & 19. A further two players from that squad departed between seasons, both Moeen Ali and Ed Barnard moved to Warwickshire. Of that successful Blast squad, it’s only really Brett D’Oliveira, Ben Cox & Pat Brown that are left.
Adam Hose is a great signing, coming off the back of a quality tournament last season, where he scored 557 runs (AV 55, SR 161), in a middle order role and he offers quality vs both pace and spin. If he has one weakness, it would be in his first ten balls vs spin, where he averages 19 and strikes at 106. Other than that, he’s pretty much an ideal middle order player at this level.
Michael Bracewell and Mitchell Santner are two nice signings as overseas players, that should suit the home conditions at New Road. Both are likely to miss a couple of games at least, due to the ongoing IPL.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Kashif Ali, Jake Libby, Josh Baker & Josh Tongue.
It’s unlikely that Worcestershire will sign any partial overseas replacements for Santner & Bracewell, they do have Azhar Ali for the entire season but I doubt he’ll feature in t20’s. The most likely replacements for Santner and Bracewell are probably Josh Baker and Kashif Ali.
At full strength, the first choice bowling attack isn’t certain and there could be quite a bit of rotation between the 5–6 options they have. There’s also the possibility to play the extra batter, with Kashif Ali coming in for one of the pace bowlers, leaving Bracewell & D’Oliveira as the fifth bowler - probably adequate for the t20 Blast.
Michael Bracewell will likely be floated around in the batting order, though he’s generally done better in New Zealand domestic cricket when he’s batted higher up the order.
Team strengths:
- Spin variety - Santner, Bracewell and D’Oliveira gives them three useful spin options and spin tends to work well at New Road - with the third highest economy rate difference between pace & spin.
- Powerplay threat - There’s still a lot of uncertainty here but both Stanley and Pennington have shown signs of regular wicket taking ability with the new ball. Stanley stood out last season, though he was expensive, it’s a worthwhile tradeoff if he can maintain that level of threat with the new ball.
- Middle order batting - Bracewell, Haynes and Hose is a strong middle order for Blast level. Something that Worcestershire have lacked in recent seasons, both Bracewell and Hose are good vs pace - a major issue for Worcestershire last season.
Team weaknesses:
- Inexperienced pace attack - The value of experience can be debated but Worcestershire have a particularly young group of pace bowlers, with limited t20 experience between them. Their performances could be very volatile.
- Death overs bowling - Pat Brown will be their go to bowler for this phase, however, his returns have completely dropped off in the last few seasons and he’s going at 12 rpo at the death. Worcestershire don’t have the resources to do well in this phase, they’d be better off being aggressive with their usage of new ball bowlers, in an attempt to restrict runs later on.
- Top order vs spin - The top 3/4 can be tied down vs spin. They have LH/RH combinations which should ensure they’re okay vs orthodox spin but wrist spin could be a problem.
- Death overs hitting - Worcestershire were comfortably the worst side in this phase last season, scoring at just 7.58 rpo. They won’t be that bad again, however, they haven’t really improved significantly in this regard. Their best hope would be having top/middle order batters set when entering this phase.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Although they’ve improved, I think there are better teams in the group and Worcestershire will struggle to make the top four.
Yorkshire
Last season: Finished 4th in group, lost in semi-finals.
Win percentage last three seasons: 50%
Overseas players: Shan Masood & David Wiese.
Top run scorers last season: Adam Lyth (525), Harry Brook 436) & Tom Kohler-Cadmore (396).
Top wicket takers last season: Jordan Thompson (17), Matthew Revis (14) & David Willey (13).
Home venue: Headingley
- Chasing win percentage = 37.5% since 2018.
- Average 1st inns score = 187, average 1st inns winning score = 194.
- One of the best batting venues in the country - has the highest scoring rate in the last two years (8.95 rpo). Powerplay and middle overs scoring rates are particularly high, it’s a difficult place to bowl spin.
Squad changes:
- In: Ben Mike, Matt Milnes, Mickey Edwards & Jafer Chohan.
- Out: Matthew Waite, Tom Kohler-Cadmore, David Willey & Tom Loten.
Yorkshire have lost a couple of key players between seasons in the form of Tom Kohler-Cadmore and David Willey. Both are borderline international quality players and would’ve been fully available, so they’ll definitely be significant losses.
Ben Mike and Matt Milnes are nice additions, though the latter has suffered an injury and will likely miss the entire Blast campaign. Having signed Ben Mike, it was a little strange to see Yorkshire go for David Wiese as an overseas player, I would’ve preferred them to sign a pace bowler or a specialist middle order batter.
Shan Masood has joined from Derbyshire and will captain the side, he could either open or bat at 3, depending on where Dawid Malan bats, there’s arguments for both sides.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Matthew Revis, Mickey Edwards, George Hill & Jafer Chohan.
England trio Harry Brook, Joe Root & Jonny Bairstow are unlikely to feature much, due to test involvement. Adil Rashid should be available for most of the campaign, once he’s back from IPL duty.
Expect it to be a flexible batting lineup, with Tattersall and possibly Thompson likely to drop down the order, depending on the situation. Yorkshire were involved in plenty of high scoring games last season and it looks to be a likely scenario again this time around.
Team strengths:
- Top order - It’s not ideal that all of them are LHB’s, however, Lyth, Masood & Malan are all capable of being high volume run scorers at Blast level, while scoring at a decent rate. Both Lyth & Masood scored 500+ runs last season and Malan was the leading run scorer in the Hundred.
- Batting against pace - With Lyth and then the lower order hitting options, Yorkshire have some of the best hitters of pace in the group, which will certainly be needed at Headingley, where hitting boundaries is essential.
- Batting depth - Yorkshire have a lot of batting depth, with Ben Mike carded to come in at number 8 - who has struck at over 150, with a boundary percentage of 20% in the last two blast seasons. There’s multiple players in the squad that could be considered as ‘finishers’ - a nice luxury to have considering some teams don’t even have one.
- Pace through the middle overs - Spin can be tricky to bowl at Headingley, so having two bowlers that can reach decent speeds (Fisher & Mike) could be beneficial when it comes to taking wickets through the middle overs. Thompson can also be a good option through the middle, with his changes of pace.
Team weaknesses:
- Lack of specialists - There’s a lot of ‘all-rounders’ in the XI, which leaves them looking light on specialist bowlers, as well as middle order batters.
- Powerplay bowlers - Most of their pace options are better outside of the powerplay. Wiese has a decent record with the new ball and Yorkshire might have to use him fairly often inside the first six overs.
- Batting order against spin - If early wickets fall, the Yorkshire middle/lower order hitters can be tied down with spin. There’s also limited LH batting options to come after the top 3.
- No SLA bowler - Headingley is possibly one ground where you can get away with this but it would still be a nice option to have in the squad.
- Death overs bowling - There’s no proven quality for this role, holding back 1–2 overs of Adil Rashid is probably their best bet.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Yorkshire are a tricky team to predict. Personally, I think there’s too many holes in the squad and I’m not convinced they’ll make the top four.
That concludes the previews for North Group sides.
Thanks for reading!
Stats: cricmetric
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