T20 Blast preview - South Group
Essex Eagles
Last season: Finished 3rd in the group, lost in quarter finals.
Win percentage last three seasons: 45.8%
Overseas players: Simon Harmer & Daniel Sams.
Top run scorers last season: Michael Pepper (439), Paul Walter (404) & Adam Rossington (317).
Top wicket takers last season: Simon Harmer (17), Matt Critchley (15) & Daniel Sams (14).
Home venue: Chelmsford
- Chasing win percentage = 56% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 172, average 1st inns winning score = 197
- One of the smallest grounds on the county circuit, has a low non-boundary strike rate & high boundary percentage.
- Tends to be a tricky ground for spinners - 2nd lowest difference between the scoring rates against pace & spin since 2018.
Squad changes:
- In - None
- Out - Adam Wheater, Jack Plom & Grant Roelofsen.
No major squad changes for Essex, means they’ll be relying on any youth/squad players from last season for any improvements they make. Daniel Sams & Simon Harmer is also the same overseas duo as last season.
Essex have a delayed start to the Blast, due to hosting Ireland in a red ball tour match and they don’t play their opening t20 game until May 30th. This could be a benefit for them, as Sams is currently still with Lucknow Super Giants in the IPL, so the later start might mean that he’s available for every game.
Dan Lawrence was named in the England test squad to face Ireland, it remains to be seen whether he’ll be a regular in the Ashes squads throughout the summer. He isn’t likely to play for England and there’s a chance England would release him to play t20 matches, while the test matches are happening. At least that’s what Essex will be hoping for.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Will Buttleman, Tom Westley, Robin Das, Shane Snater, Aaron Beard & Josh Rymell.
Like I said earlier, it’s going to be a similar XI to last season. Essex were a reasonably strong side last time out, finishing the season with an above average batting & bowling economy rate, one of only five teams to do so. They were very productive with the bat against spin, scoring at 8.92 rpo (3rd best), whereas they were only the 11th fastest scoring team vs pace.
The bowling attack has mixed and probably overperformed last season, however, having quite a few options definitely helped them out, with as many as 7–8 decent bowling options in the XI. The ability to chop & change bowlers is surely a benefit at a higher scoring venue like Chelmsford.
A lot of the XI picks itself, though there are a few spots up for grabs. The opening positions have been an issue for Essex for a while, they’ve tried plenty of different options over the last two seasons and even used Matt Critchley as an opener in the quarter final last season. I don’t expect they’ll go down that route again and it’s more likely that Feroze Khushi or Will Buttleman will get the nod, though Josh Rymell has been performing well in 2nd XI matches.
The secondary spin slot is also an interesting one. Aron Nijjar had typically been a reliable performer for Essex but really struggled last season - going at 11.3 rpo, including conceding 106 runs in the six overs he bowled vs LHB’s. Essex can’t afford to carry someone performing that badly again this season.
Team strengths:
- Batting depth - Having Sams & Harmer carded at 7 & 8, with a fairly strong middle order ahead of them represents some really good depth. Essex should be one of the best batting sides outside of the powerplay.
- Bowling options - The emergence of Paul Walter as a bowling, in addition to signing Matt Critchley ahead of last season has given them much more variety as a bowling unit. Potentially having 4–5 main bowling options, plus Walter, Critchley and Lawrence.
- Fast scorers against spin - Rossington, Pepper, Lawrence and Walter are all capable of scoring quickly against spin. Michael Pepper is particularly aggressive against it and has impressive range; able to play a variety of sweeps and can hit over extra over.
Team weaknesses:
- Secondary opening slot - Finding a partner for Rossington is proving to be an issue for Essex. Buttleman, Khushi, Das & Westley have all been tried in the last couple of seasons, none of them have really stood out - averaging 22 and striking at 122 between
- Death overs bowling - Sams & Cook both have reasonable records at the death but neither are bankers by any means. Essex went at 10.03 rpo at the death last season, which was slightly above average but I’m not sure it’s sustainable, particularly at smaller grounds, which a lot of them seem to be in the South Group.
- Final two frontline bowling slots - Having so many bowling options somewhat counters this, however, there’s a noticeable drop off in quality from the likes of Sams, Cook & Harmer to Nijjar & Allison, or whoever plays in that role. Against good batting sides, these bowlers could be targeted.
- Lack of high pace options - There’s generally a lot of variety in their bowling attack but the one thing they’re missing is a bowler that can consistently hit high speeds, which would a be a nice bonus to have against most t20 Blast sides.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Look like a solid team again this season. I think there’s certainly better teams in the group, however, they won’t be far away from the top four come the end of the season.
Glamorgan
Last season: Finished 6th in the group, winning 5/12 completed matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 36.4%
Overseas players: Marnus Labuschagne, Colin Ingram & Michael Neser.
Top run scorers last season: Sam Northeast (510), David Lloyd (213) & Dan Douthwaite (180).
Top wicket takers last season: Michael Hogan (20), Prem Sisodiya (14) & Michael Neser (13).
Home venue: Sophia Gardens (Cardiff)
- Chasing win percentage = 56.1% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 163, average 1st inns winning score = 180
- Tough venue for batting, with massive square boundaries.
- Tends to be a better venue for pace bowlers but good spinners will also have success there.
Squad changes:
- In - Harry Podmore
- Out - Michael Hogan, Joe Cooke, James Weighell, Ruaidhri Smith, Lukas Carey & Tom Cullen.
Sam Northeast was a revelation for Glamorgan last season, finishing as their top run scorer by a distance and only five players in the competition scored more runs than him in the group stages. His strike rate (125) wasn’t particularly outstanding but represented an improvement on what he’d managed in previous seasons (104 from 2018–21). In any case, having an anchor-type player, with more focus on building an innings isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially at a venue where batting can be notoriously difficult.
It’s the same overseas trio again for Glamorgan this season, though the involvement of Marnus Labuschagne will be limited due to his involvement with the Australia test squad. Glamorgan will also be braced for any potential late call-ups to those squads for Michael Neser, who has impressed in county cricket so far this season.
Harry Podmore is the only senior addition they’ve made who is likely to feature in the Blast, though two highly-rated youth players have signed professional contracts between seasons - Ben Kellaway & Ben Morris. Kellaway has been performing well in the 2nd XI t20’s and could push for a middle order spot if the incumbents struggle in the earlier games of the tournament.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Harry Podmore, Callum Taylor, Billy Root, Jamie McIlroy & Thomas Bevan.
Glamorgan aren’t the easiest team to predict, there’s a lot of similar level players throughout the squad, with very few established t20 players. Kiran Carlson and Eddie Byrom don’t have impressive t20 records in recent seasons but I’d like to see them backed again, both have shown upside in the format before, going back a few years.
The balance of the XI is also up for debate, with the XI above potentially lacking bowling options. Douthwaite as the fifth bowler could be an issue, especially as there’s limited bowling options amongst the top six batters. This looks to be an issue and there isn’t an easy as there’s a lack of ‘all-rounder’ style players in the squad.
Team strengths:
- Death overs hitting - Provided they have good entry points, both Cooke & Douthwaite can be useful hitters at the death. Especially Douthwaite, who has an impressive six-hitting record in the last two seasons - clearing the ropes 32 times in 230 deliveries, with 19 of those coming against pace in the final five overs (from 98 deliveries). Cooke hasn’t done as well in recent seasons (potential age factor/bad entry points) but struck at above 190 at the death in four successive seasons from 2017 to 2020.
- Powerplay bowling options - Glamorgan still have some good powerplay options, despite losing Michael Hogan. Expect Neser and van der Gugten to do the majority of the work but Prem Sisodiya can also be used - bowls almost 40% of his overs in the powerplay (ER 6.8, SR 21).
- Solid opening partnership - If Northeast can maintain the same level of reliability, it looks like a nice opening combination, with Lloyd as the more aggressive option. Lloyd has struck at 135+ in each of the last four Blast seasons and has a powerplay strike rate of almost 150 in the same timeframe.
Team weaknesses:
- Middle order issues - Although there’s players with potential there’s no avoiding the fact that all of their middle order options are striking at under 125 since the start of 2020 (Ingram, Carlson, Byrom & Cooke).
- Death overs bowling - There isn’t an obvious option for this role. All of their pace bowlers go at 10+ rpo at the death. It looks like they’ll be relying on assistance from the pitch at Cardiff to help them out in the later overs.
- Lacking a wrist spin option - It feels like a long time since Glamorgan had a frontline leg spinner in their XI, with the short straight boundaries at Cardiff possibly being a detergent. I’d definitely like to see one in future seasons, as leg spinners tend to have a decent record at Sophia Gardens.
- Team balance - If they go with the style of XI that I posted above, they definitely look to be a bowler light. If they choose to pick an extra bowler, they risk making an already weak batting line up, even weaker. The absence of ‘all-rounders’ leaves their XI looking unbalanced no matter who they decide to pick.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Glamorgan haven’t finished in the top four since 2017 and I don’t think season will be one where that changes. There’s not enough quality in the squad to outperform some of the bigger sides in the group.
Gloucestershire
Last season: Finished 5th in group, winning 6/12 completed matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 57.1%
Overseas players: Grant Roelofsen, Zafar Gohar & Marcus Harris.
Top run scorers last season: Glenn Phillips (346), James Bracey (298) & Jack Taylor (234).
Top wicket takers last season: David Payne (18), Tom Smith (15) & Benny Howell (11).
Home venue: Bristol
- Chasing win percentage = 51.7% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 173, Average 1st inns winning score = 194
- Can be a tricky pitch to bat on vs the new ball.
Squad changes:
- In - Marchant de Lange & Zaman Akhter.
- Out - Benny Howell, Ryan Higgins & Ian Cockbain.
From a Gloucestershire perspective, things look fairly bleak. So often a underdog in recent seasons, they continually punched above their weight, reaching the top four fairly regularly and boasting an impressive win percentage of 57% in the last three seasons. However, it doesn’t look like they’ll continue on that path this season.
They’ve lost three guaranteed starters from previous seasons, with Benny Howell being the biggest loss of them all - losing a four over bowler and their best lower order hitter (SR 165 in the last three Blast seasons) is a huge blow. Higgins and Cockbain haven’t been brilliant in the last couple of seasons but they’re losses that will be felt, given the quality of their replacements.
In addition to that, Gloucestershire’s overseas quality has also dropped off significantly. Going from Glenn Phillips & Naseem Shah (Mohammad Amir replaced him after a few games due to injury) to Grant Roelofsen & Zafar Gohar is certainly a big downgrade. Gloucestershire are a county that’s struggling financially, so it’s understandable that they can’t get the bigger names back, however, I think they could’ve done better than they’ve managed.
Possible XI:
Most likely backups to feature: Zafar Gohar, Ollie Price, Josh Shaw, Matt Taylor & George Scott.
I’m not sure Zafar Gohar will even play, given Gloucestershire already have two domestic SLA options, one of whom is a decent batter (Graeme van Buuren). You’d like to think they’re trying to get another overseas player in before their blast campaign begins but that doesn’t look to be the case as things stand.
*Note* - Graeme van Buuren isn’t in the Gloucestershire squad for their opening t20 blast game, so it looks like Zafar will start the tournament.
Grant Roelofsen joining could mean the end of the Dent-Hammond partnership at the top of the order, one that’s regularly been tied down by spin (both LHB’s). Hammond is familiar with batting in the middle order and has done so for Birmingham Phoenix in the Hundred with reasonable success. It’s a move that should help get more out of Chris Dent, who has phenomenal numbers vs non-spin (SR 177, AV 56), compared to spin (SR 106, AV 12).
The one positive for Gloucestershire is that they’ve been able to sign Marchant de Lange on a local contract, he’ll give them a high pace option and forms a decent pace trio with David Payne and Paul van Meekeren.
Team strengths:
- Pace Attack - They’ve got nice variety and it’s a strong pace trio, considering they haven’t used an overseas slot on this role.
- Top order - As mentioned earlier, Chris Dent has generally done well in the Blast but has missed quite a few games through injury. If he’s available for the full season it makes them much stronger. In combination with Roelofsen and Hammond it looks like a decent top 3 and will be key to any success that Gloucestershire plan to have.
Team weaknesses:
- Quality drop off - Their squad has undoubtedly gotten much worse between seasons and this looks ominous considering they missed out on top four last season. Losing three guaranteed starters, plus two high quality overseas players is awful and they haven’t really been replaced.
- Overseas quality - Has already been mentioned but a potential overseas duo of Grant Roelofsen & Zafar Gohar is one of, if not, the weakest in the competition.
- Batting against spin - There isn’t a top quality player of spin in the line up. Will be reliant on LH/RH combinations to counter orthodox spin but they look very vulnerable vs any high quality wrist/mystery spin.
- Death overs hitting/batting depth - Losing Howell & Higgins has really weakened them in this regard. Jack Taylor is only striking in the mid 150’s at the death since 2020 & Van Buuren hasn’t played much t20 cricket in the last 18 months. Additionally, there isn’t top order players that look like they can bat through the innings.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Gloucestershire are a team I’ve enjoyed watching in recent years but it’s difficult to see them doing anything significant this year. I’d be surprised if they made the top four.
Hampshire Hawks
Last season: Finished 4th in the group, went on to win the tournament.
Win percentage last three seasons: 53.8%
Overseas players: Ben McDermott & Nathan Ellis.
Top run scorers last season: James Vince (678), Ben McDermott (490) & Joe Weatherley (356).
Top wicket takers last season: James Fuller (23), Brad Wheal (22) & Chris Wood (21).
Home venue: Ageas Bowl
- Chasing win percentage = 46.5% since 2018
- Average first inns score = 163, average first inns winning score = 170
- One of the biggest grounds in the country
- Generally quick wickets, favours pace bowlers. Lowest economy rate difference between non-spin & spin, pace bowlers have actually been more economical than spinners in the last two seasons.
- Tough ground for six hitting - Chester-le-Street is the only ground where sixes are hit less often than at the Ageas Bowl.
Squad changes:
- In - Benny Howell
- Out - No one
Given their success last season, it isn’t surprising that Hampshire have adopted the ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ methodology, making minimal changes to their squad from last season.
The one addition they’ve made is a big one and definitely improves their XI. Benny Howell gives them another off-pace bowling option and also strengthens their batting depth, in general, Howell has been one of the most valuable players in the t20 blast over the last few years.
Hampshire will also welcome back overseas duo Ben McDermott and Nathan Ellis, both had a positive impact, particularly Ellis, who went at under 7rpo in the tournament, despite bowling 44% of his deliveries in the final five overs of an innings.
Pace bowling was key to Hampshire’s success last season, with Ellis leading the attack in the later overs. However, they also had three other pace bowlers that took 20+ wickets; James Fuller, Chris Wood and Brad Wheal. It was the emergence of James Fuller as a genuine bowling option that really transformed their team, bowling over 80% of his overs through the middle, he was perfectly suited to conditions at the Ageas, going at 7.55 rpo in his games there vs over 8 rpo at other venues. It was a remarkable turn around for Fuller, considering he’d gone at 11.3 rpo in the four Blast seasons prior to last year.
It’ll be interesting to see how Hampshire structure their bowling unit this season. With Howell being a certain starter, will they pivot from the four man pace attack that worked so well for them last season?
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Brad Wheal, Scott Currie & Nick Gubbins.
Mason Crane’s spot in the XI is under more pressure than ever before, with Dawson and Howell already in the team, another off-pace bowling option isn’t necessarily needed, especially in their home matches at the Ageas Bowl. Crane had a really poor tournament last season, going at 9.4 rpo, including almost 11 rpo vs LHB’s. Given how well the four man pace attack worked for Hampshire last time out, there’ll be significant pressure on Crane if he starts the tournament poorly. I do think he’ll be in the starting XI at the beginning of the tournament though.
The only other possible debate in the starting XI is for the other bowling slot, with Chris Wood and Brad Wheal competing for that spot. Chris Wood has experience on his side, gives them a left arm option and has been reliable in recent Blast seasons, going at between 7.6 & 8.2 rpo in each of the last five tournaments. Wheal has also done well, showcasing excellent wicket taking ability in the last two seasons but I think Chris Wood is ahead in the pecking order.
Team strengths:
- Team balance - Adequate team balance is far from guaranteed in the Blast but Hampshire are one team that have this covered. Having players that can contribute well with bat & ball - Fuller, Howell & Dawson (less so Dawson with the bat) makes them a well-rounded XI.
- Opening partnership - It wasn’t the opening partnership they went with intially but once they settled on the Vince/McDermott duo it worked extremely well. Both struck at over 140 in the tournament, with good averages and Vince finished last year’s Blast as the leading run scorer. One slight concern would be Ben McDermott’s record in home matches last season - he scored just 104 runs in seven innings (AV 15, SR 112) vs (AV 39, SR 158) in matches away from home.
- Pace bowling options - As mentioned earlier, the emergence of Fuller as a bowling option gave them increased flexibility as a bowling unit, allowing them to bowl 14+ overs if pace if they wanted to, which tends to work well at the Ageas Bowl.
- Middle overs bowling options - The addition of Howell gives them as many as five good options to bowl through the middle overs (Fuller, Ellis, Crane & Dawson). This gives them plenty of options depending on the team/batters at the crease, which should allow them to be extremely efficient with matchups etc.
Team weaknesses:
- Older squad - I doubt it’ll be a big issue but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on, as it looks like there’ll be six players in the XI aged 32+, a couple of those have perhaps shown signs of age-related drop offs in recent seasons.
- Slow starters - Most of the batters in the XI require 10–15 balls to play themselves in before accelerating. McDermott, Prest, Weatherley and Whiteley all have first ten ball strike rates of under 120.
- Wrist spin quality - As mentioned earlier, Mason Crane struggled last season and was probably the only negative to take from last year’s campaign.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Nothing is ever certain in t20 cricket, especially the t20 Blast. However, Hampshire look to have given themselves a good chance of experiencing success once again this year. There are some other strong teams in this group but I’d expect Hampshire to be up there again, pushing for a top two finish.
Kent Spitfires
Last season: Finished 9th in the group, winning 3/14 games.
Win percentage last three seasons: 51.25%
Overseas players: George Linde & Kane Richardson
Top run scorers last season: Joe Denly (423), Jordan Cox (365) & Sam Billings (253).
Top wicket takers last season: Qais Ahmad (14), Grant Stewart (14) & George Linde/Fred Klaasen (12).
Home venue: Canterbury
- Chasing win percentage = 37% since 2018
- Average first inns score = 176, average first inns winning score = 186.
- Has favoured spin - largest difference between the economy of pace & spin since 2018.
- 3rd highest non-boundary strike rate of any venue.
Squad changes:
- In - Joey Evison, Michael Hogan & Arafat Bhuiyan.
- Out - Matt Milnes, Darren Stevens, Harry Podmore & Ollie Robinson.
It was a staggering drop off for Kent last season, after winning the t20 Blast in 2021, they went on to finishing bottom of the group in 2022, winning only 3/14 matches. They probably weren’t as bad as their final record suggested, however, they didn’t deserve to be anywhere close to the top four.
Kent were particularly weak with the bat last season, scoring at just 8 rpo - fifth lowest in the competition and they struggled against both pace & spin. A lot of this could’ve come from their struggles at the top of the order - Kent were the slowest scoring side in the powerplay and Daniel Bell-Drummond had his worst Blast season by a distance, scoring just 57 runs in eight innings. There’s no doubt he’ll perform much better than that this season.
The other area of major concern for Kent last season came with the ball at the death, where they went at a staggering 12.7 rpo, this was 1.32 rpo higher than the next worst and 2.68 rpo above the tournament average. It should come as no surprise that they’ve looked to address this by adding Kane Richardson as one of their overseas players - a solid performer who can contribute in any phase with the ball. George Linde returns as their other overseas player, he had a decent tournament last year; scoring 212 runs (SR 155) and taking 11 wickets.
In terms of domestic signings - veteran Michael Hogan should play fairly regularly; mainly bowling with the new ball, a role he did well for Glamorgan last season. Joey Evison is a big talent but probably won’t be a regular starter this season, though I do expect him to play at some point. And Arafat Bhuiyan has recently joined, after graduating from the SACA programme, further boosting the depth in the pace bowling department.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Tawanda Muyeye, Joey Evison & Nathan Gilchrist.
Zak Crawley will miss most of Kent’s t20 blast campaign, due to England test duty, meaning they’ll have to find another opener. There are two options - Joe Denly & Tawanda Muyeye. Denly has a reasonable record as an opener for Kent in recent seasons, averaging 34 and striking at 134. While Muyeye has yet to make an impact in the Blast, scoring just 81 runs in six innings but has done well in 2nd XI matches and is a very talented player. It isn’t an easy call, though I think they’ll go with Denly. If Muyeye plays, Denly would drop down to three, as I highly doubt Kent would leave him out.
A potential way to fit both in the team would be to go down the batting-heavy route, with a top 8 of Bell-Drummond, Muyeye, Denly, Cox, Blake, Billings, Leaning & Linde, though I’m not necessarily a huge fan of that route.
Team strengths:
- Pace hitters - The Kent XI features lots of players that are capable of hitting pace, such as Bell-Drummond, Leaning, Linde & Stewart. Jordan Cox is also a good player of pace once set.
- Batting depth - Grant Stewart carded to come in at number 8 is genuinely good batting depth, hence, why I’m not a fan of going down the batting-heavy route, it isn’t necessary.
- Powerplay bowling options - Expect Michael Hogan & Fred Klaassen to take the new ball, while Kane Richardson can be used to close out the powerplay. Kent also have spin options they can use, George Linde has an excellent powerplay record, while Joe Denly has regularly bowled one of the first overs for them in the past.
Team weaknesses:
- Quite RH heavy - Kent look better than they have done in the past in this regard but there’s still only two LHB’s in the XI and neither of those are capable of consistently countering spin matchups. Alex Blake can certainly clear the ropes vs his spin matchup, hitting 12 sixes in 91 deliveries, however, he’s also dismissed every ten deliveries.
- Opening position(s) - If Bell-Drummond can’t get close to his previous best, it would leave Kent searching for two openers, in the absence of Zak Crawley.
- Middle order slowdowns - Not many of the middle order are fluent scorers from ball one and some of them can be tied down by good pin bowlers, with Blake & Leaning being two players that have particularly weak records vs spin.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Kent definitely look like a more well-rounded side than the one we saw last season. The pace attack looks much stronger, while the batting unit performing better should be a given, as I doubt Bell-Drummond will struggle as badly as he did last season. I don’t think Kent are one of the strongest teams in the group but they should be in that second tier of teams, potentially finishing between 3rd-5th.
Middlesex
Last season: Finished 8th in the group, winning 4/14 matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 31.9%
Overseas players: Pieter Malan
Top run scorers last season: Stevie Eskinazi (431), Max Holden (314) & Joe Cracknell (314).
Top wicket takers last season: Martin Andersson (17), Chris Green (14) & Jason Behrendorff (11).
Home venue: Lord’s
- Chasing win percentage = 40% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 177, Average 1st inns winning score = 182
- Lord’s has a bit of a reputation for being a low scoring venue in white ball cricket but it’s generally been fine in t20's.
- Often has one shorter square boundary that can be exploited. Deep pockets.
Squad changes:
- In - Ryan Higgins & Nathan Fernandes.
- Out - Nathan Sowter & Eoin Morgan.
Middlesex are already one of the weakest sides in the T20 Blast, with a win percentage of just 32% in the last three seasons and the business they’ve done between seasons doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The last time they reached the top four is 2019, when they had the likes of AB de Villiers, Eoin Morgan, Dawid Malan & Paul Stirling in their team, none of whom will be there this time around, following the retirement of Eoin Morgan.
Ryan Higgins is a decent addition but not enough to bridge the gap between Middlesex and the teams above them.
As things stand, the overseas player situation at Middlesex is looking disastrous. Pieter Malan is currently the only overseas player register and he boasts a career t20 strike rate of under 120. Keshav Maharaj was due to be involved for Middlesex this season, however, he ruptured his achilles in a game for South Africa and will miss the entire season. In a press release at the time, Middlesex said ‘For us to lose Kesh so close to the start of the new season is a blow, however, he wasn’t scheduled to begin playing for us until late April, which buys us a little time to put plan B into action.’ We’re still waiting on that ‘Plan B’…
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Max Harris, Jack Davies, Toby Roland-Jones & Nathan Fernandes.
It’s difficult to know how Middlesex will line up, especially as they could sign some last minute overseas players. Currently, I’d expect them to go with something like above, though the batting order is far from certain. If fit, I’d also play Max Harris ahead of Martin Andersson.
On the plus side, it looks as if both Tom Helm and Blake Cullen are fit, which hasn’t been the case very often in the last two seasons. This should at least give them some quality towards the backend of the innings with the ball.
Team strengths:
- Strike rotation - Most of the batters in their XI have good non-boundary strike rates.
- LH/RH combinations - Their likely XI features three LHB’s in the top 7/8, this could be particularly useful at Lord’s, where there’s often one much smaller square boundary.
- Death/later overs bowling - Tom Helm and Blake Cullen should be able to provide some level of control for Middlesex later in the innings, though some games could be out of reach by that point.
Team weaknesses:
- Overseas quality - Lack of overseas options and the one they do have is substandard. I’m assuming they’re struggling financially but even still, to neglect their white ball side like they’ve done is really poor.
- General batting quality - Apart from Eskinazi, there’s no other player in the squad with a t20 strike rate of above 135 since the start of 2020. He’ll need to have an incredible season if there’s going to be any chance of success for Middlesex this season.
- Spin attack - Middlesex have often relied on an overseas spinner for control in the middle overs in recent seasons, whether that’s Chris Green or Mujeeb. They don’t have that this year and they’ve also lost Nathan Sowter, leaving the spin attack looking a little light.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Middlesex look bad and probably will be bad. The T20 Blast is a funny competition though and you can never completely rule anything out. Middlesex do have quite a few decent younger players, hopefully they do well.
Somerset
Last season: Finished 2nd in the group, lost in semi-final.
Win percentage last three seasons: 62.5%
Overseas players: Matt Henry & Peter Siddle.
Top run scorers last season: Rilee Rossouw (623), Will Smeed (407) & Tom Abell (400).
Top wicket takers last season: Ben Green (21), Peter Siddle (17) & Josh Davey (15).
Home venue: Taunton
- Chasing win percentage = 41.2% since 2018
- Average 1st inns score = 189, average first inns winning score = 199
- Best venue for batting in the country - flat pitches and small boundaries.
- Highest economy rate for spinners since 2018 and in the last two seasons.
- Sixes are hit more often at Taunton than any other venue.
- Can offer some assistance for bowlers with the new ball. After that, it’s impossible to defend.
Squad changes:
- In - Tom Kohler-Cadmore & Sean Dickson.
- Out - Marchant de Lange, Ollie Sale & Max Waller.
Somerset have been the nearly men in recent seasons, showing impressive consistency but often falling just short of competing for the title. Last season they aced the group stage and then thrashed Derbyshire in the quarter final, beating them by 191 runs. Once again, they come unstuck at finals day, losing to eventual winners - Hampshire, in the semi-finals.
Taunton is well-known for being an incredible venue for batting and last season was no different. It proved to be very difficult for spinners and Somerset exploited this, scoring at over 10 rpo vs spin last season. Additionally, Somerset bowled less than 20% of their deliveries through spinners at Taunton last season, where as opposition sides bowled over 30%.
Whether Somerset’s spin hitting will be as impressive this season remains to be seen. Rilee Rossouw won’t be returning and he was a crucial part of this - hitting 249 runs against spin from just 112 deliveries. However, Tom Kohler-Cadmore has joined, his spin-hitting game has developed nicely in recently - hitting a six every 8.4 deliveries vs spin since the start of 2022 and he’s particularly impressive hitting down the ground. With him and a couple of others, Somerset still have the resources to bully spin at Taunton.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Lewis Goldsworthy, Josh Davey, George Bartlett, Sean Dickson & James Rew.
Lewis Gregory has been announced as captain, taking over from Tom Abell, who’d performed the role in recent seasons.
The XI for Somerset looks fairly predictable, with Matt Henry and Peter Siddle confirmed as their two overseas players. Personally, I’m not sure I would’ve gone down this route, however, budget constraints likely played a part in their decision making.
It leaves the potential batting order looking interesting, with Lammonby and Gregory possibly batting one place too high. I’m interested to see how they structure the top 3, Kohler-Cadmore has a great record as an opener (AV 41, SR 150) since 2020 and Banton has only averaged 22 in the Blast in the past two seasons. He also has an attacking game vs spin and the ability to score in multiple areas, trying him at number 3, with Kohler-Cadmore opening wouldn’t be the worst idea.
Team strengths:
- Batting depth - Both Overton & Van der Merwe are capable batters and one of them is likely to be carded at 9, demonstrating the impressive depth that Somerset have. It’s been a similar case for a while and it’s won them a couple of games in the past, most notably the sem-final in 2021.
- Batting against spin - Rossouw isn’t returning but Somerset still have multiple players capable of taking on spin. Tom Abell is well-known for being a classy player of spin and TKC’s hitting ability has already been mentioned. Will Smeed also has a good record vs spin in English conditions, while Banton scores quickly, though he’s dismissed regularly.
- Six-hitting ability - Smeed, Kohler-Cadmore, Banton & Lammonby are all above average six hitters. While Gregory is more than good enough on his day and most of the lower order hitters have shown they can clear the ropes.
- New ball options - Craig Overton is one of the best new ball bowlers in the Blast and Matt Henry is another reliable option - he’s been excellent in white ball cricket for New Zealand in the powerplay. Peter Siddle is another option, though you’d think he’s more of a powerplay closer.
Team weaknesses:
- Lacking bowling variety - Their squad basically consists of right arm pace and SLA bowlers. There’s a lack of LA pace options, high pace bowlers and wrist spinners, this could be problematic against stronger teams.
- Potentially lacking a specialist batter - With Rossouw not returning, there’s a big gap to fill, after he scored over 600 runs last season. Kohler-Cadmore is capable of doing well but that well? I’m not so sure. If the top order struggles (Banton has been poor of late), there’s a chance Lammonby/Gregory could be faced with entry points that are far from ideal.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Somerset look strong again, though I’m not sure they’ve improved between seasons. I’d back them to finish in the top four but winning the competition feels unlikely.
Surrey
Last season: Finished 1st in the group, lost in quarter-final.
Win percentage last three seasons: 68.9%
Overseas players: Sunil Narine & Sean Abbott.
Top run scorers last season: Will Jacks (449), Laurie Evans (290) & Jason Roy (281).
Top wicket takers last season: Chris Jordan (16), Reece Topley (14) & Sunil Narine (13).
Home venue: The Oval
- Chasing win percentage = 61% since 2018
- Average first inns score = 168, average first inns winning score = 183.
- Highest chasing win percentage of any ground in the UK since 2018.
- Potentially slightly slower scoring than you’d expect, pitches are some of the quickest in the country and offer assistance to pace bowlers.
- Lower death overs scoring rates than most other grounds.
Squad changes:
- In - Dom Sibley
- Out - No one
Another team that’s a quite period between seasons, with no significant changes to their squad in terms of the t20 format. Perhaps with good reason, after they won 10/13 completed matches to top the group last season. A shock quarter final defeat shouldn’t have drastically impacted their planning for this season, especially considering most of their England/IPL stars should have decent availability.
As for their overseas players - Sunil Narine returns to the club after a successful stint last season, when he went at just 6.02 rpo, across 50 overs. He hasn’t been at his best in t20’s this year but he should more than capable of doing the business with the ball in the t20 Blast.
The signing of Sean Abbott is a little strange, given the amount of pace options & pace bowling all-rounders that have Surrey on their books; Sam Curran, Tom Curran, Chris Jordan, Jamie Overton, Gus Atkinson, Reece Topley, Dan Worrall & Conor McKerr, though a couple of these are carrying injuries, so things might have worked out okay. Otherwise, players that need to be playing might have sat on the bench for most of the season.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Gus Atkinson, Dan Worrall, Dan Moriarty & Ryan Patel.
I think if every player was fit & available the XI above would be the one they’d go with. However, there’s doubts over plenty of the players. Jamie Overton and Tom Curran are returning from long-term injuries, both are fit to bat but are unlikely to bowl at the start of the tournament. The fitness status of Reece Topley is unknown. While Sunil Narine, Sam Curran & Jason Roy have only recently finished the IPL and could be given a period of rest. Finally, Surrey’s captain - Chris Jordan is still involved in the IPL with Mumbai Indians.
All of this means it’s very difficult to predict a Surrey XI for the start of the Blast. There’s a good chance that both Tom Curran and Jamie Overton will play as specialist batters, while Gus Atkinson & Dan Moriarty should also get run outs. It’ll be a deserved run in the starting XI for Atkinson, who is far too good to be sitting on the bench, having taken 27 wickets in his last two Blast seasons, with an impressive strike rate of 10.
Team strengths:
- Pace bowling options - Even if there are fitness doubts, Surrey have more than enough depth to cover for 2–3 potential injuries. Easily the strongest team in the Blast in this regard.
- Lower order pace hitters - Surrey also have plenty of bowlers that can contribute with the bat. J Overton has one of the highest strike rates vs non-spin in t20’s (190), while Jordan and T Curran have both improved as batters in the last couple of years - striking at 182 & 168 vs non-spin in t20’s since the start of 2022. Both are more than comfortable playing as ‘finishers’ at Blast level.
- Top order strength - Laurie Evans is available, which fills a potential hole they might’ve had in their line up and rounds out the top four nicely, with Jacks, Roy and Sam Curran (likely). All four have a balls per dismissal rate of above 20 in the T20 Blast (last three seasons) and 3/4 strike at higher than 145.
- Death overs bowling - Given their pace attack, it’s unsurprising that there’s quite a few options for this role - Reece Topley, Sam Curran, Chris Jordan & Sean Abbott.
Team weaknesses:
- Weakness against spin through the middle? - If Sam Curran has a fixed position in the top 3/4, there’s a chance that Surrey could be weaker against spin through the middle overs. If the likes of Overton, T Curran and Jordan have to come in earlier than expected, it could cause problems, as all of them prefer pace on the ball.
- Limited spin options - Having so many pace options could be a hinderance at times, meaning they’ll likely try to force as many of them into their XI as possible. Sunil Narine will probably be the only frontline spinner, meaning they’ll be missing a SLA/wrist spin option in the XI.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: Most t20 blast sides have a strong group of 5–6 players, a few others are fortunate to have a strong XI. Surrey have a strong squad of 15–16 players. Their squad, especially their pace bowling depth is a flex over other counties. I’d expect Surrey to qualify for the knockout rounds fairly comfortably.
Sussex Sharks
Last season: Finished 7th in the group, winning 4/14 completed matches.
Win percentage last three seasons: 45.9%
Overseas players: Shadab Khan & Nathan McAndrew.
Top run scorers last season: Tom Alsop (318), Ravi Bopara (294) & Mohammad Rizwan (275).
Top wicket takers last season: Tymal Mills (15), Obed McCoy (14) & Steven Finn (14).
Home venue: Hove
- Chasing win percentage = 51.9% since 2018.
- Average first inns score = 167, average first inns winning score = 179.
- One of the lower scoring venues in the South Group.
- Has generally favoured spin, though that could be skewed by Rashid Khan playing quite a few games there.
Squad changes:
- In - Bertie Foreman
- Out - Luke Wright
Sussex aren’t the force they once were in the t20 Blast, which is understandable given the amount of players they’ve lost in the last few years. Chris Jordan, Reece Topley, Danny Briggs, Laurie Evans and Phil Salt have all departed to join other counties, while the likes of Jofra Archer and Ollie Robinson have either been injured/or involved with England. Luke Wright becomes the latest big name that Sussex have lost, though not to another county this time, he retired, after taking up a role as England men’s selector. Nevertheless, it’s a blow for Sussex, as he still had a year left on his contract.
For their overseas players, Shadab is obviously a great signing and should contribute well with both bat & ball. He had a fairly underwhelming stint for Yorkshire last season, going at almost 9 rpo with the ball and striking at 130 with the bat. Conditions at Hove will make it easier for him to succeed as a bowler, while his batting will always be fairly volatile, he’s probably a more polished player of pace than he was this time last year.
Nathan McAndrew is an okay signing - capable of bowling at reasonable speeds, while offering some lower order hitting. He doesn’t really have a specific role in t20’s though and there are certainly better t20 bowlers around. Sussex needed a multi-format bowler after an injury to Jayden Seales, which is probably why they ended up with McAndrew.
Possible XI:
Most likely squad players to feature: Fynn Hudson-Prentice, Brad Currie, Harrison Ward & Daniel Ibrahim.
The fitness status of Steven Finn is unknown, he hasn’t featured in any of their first class matches or 2nd XI t20’s so far this season, so he could be carrying an injury. The most likely replacement for him would be Brad Currie, though Hudson-Prentice is also an option, further boosting the batting line up.
As far as batting orders go, this Sussex one looks fairly unsettled. Bopara could realistically bat anywhere in the top 6, I wouldn’t mind seeing him as an opener but I’m not convinced that’ll happen. As things stand, Orr and Alsop are certainties in the top 3 (both LHB’s), with the other opening spot up for grabs. Most of the alternatives for this role are also LHB’s - Tom Haines, Harrison Ward and Tom Clark. Of course, they could open with Orr & Alsop, pushing Bopara to number 3 but Alsop enjoyed the best t20 season of his career, mainly batting at 3 & 4 last season, so I’d be reluctant to change that.
The issue with the LH-heavy top order is that both Orr & Alsop prefer pace on the ball and were much weaker against spin in the Blast last season:
Having a LH-heavy top order would almost invite opposition sides to attack their weaknesses, potentially missing out of some of the dynamism they had at the top of the order last season.
Team strengths:
- Spin hitters through the middle - If the batting order is flexible, Sussex have the resources to take down spin in the middle overs. Shadab, Rawlins and Garton all have reasonable numbers vs spin and have shown evidence of being able to capitalise on matchups in individual innings.
- Middle overs bowling - Shadab, Bopara and Mills are all great options in this phase, with economy rates of under 8 rpo. While Rawlins, Lenham and McAndrew can also be used if further options are required.
- Off-pace bowlers - In addition to potentially having three spinners in the XI - Shadab, Lenham and Rawlins. Sussex can also call upon the medium pace of Bopara, he’s usually a fairly effective bowler in the Blast.
Team weaknesses:
- Lacking a RH top order player - As mentioned earlier, this could prove to be an issue for Sussex - inviting opposition sides to bowl spin at their top order.
- Powerplay bowling options - Sussex look very reliant on George Garton in this phase and he’s a good option with the new ball but he can leak runs at times.
Player stats sheet:
Prediction: There’s a lot to like about this Sussex side, I just feel there’s too many gaps in the side to be truly competitive. A mid table finish, with the potential to push for a top four spot feels likely.
That concludes the South Group previews.
Thanks for reading!
Stats: cricmetric
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