T20 World Cup preview - England
Runners up in the last tournament which incredibly took place over five years ago. I think we all know what happened in that final and indeed it’s been repeated in plenty of adverts in the lead up to this WC. A game that England looked to have in the bag after a powerplay burst from Joe Root and David Willey left West Indies 11–3 in the third over. Firstly a re-build from Marlon Samuels and then of course, Brathwaite hitting Stokes for four consecutive sixes in the final over gave West Indies the win. Even still, that tournament could’ve probably be seen as a success for England, after failing to make it into the semi-finals in either of the previous two campaigns. As England’s white ball cricket went backwards after winning the aforementioned tournament for the first time in 2010.
Quite a few players remain from the side that lost in 2016, with as many as seven from the 2016 final starting XI still in the squad this time around. Jason Roy, Jos Buttler, Eoin Morgan, Moeen Ali, Chris Jordan, David Willey and Adil Rashid all have strong chances of being regulars for England at this tournament, which shows just how experienced this England side is. Ben Stokes (injury), Alex Hales, Joe Root and Liam Plunkett are the four players that won’t be involved. Even then two of those would potentially still be in the side if it wasn’t for non-cricketing reasons.
Added to that Sam Billings, Liam Dawson, James Vince and Reece Topley who were all part of the 2016 squad, are all in the squad for this WC in some capacity. Whether that’s as a reserve or back up players in the main squad.
This is testament to the process England undertook after their dismal 2015 World Cup, which led them to identifying a solid core of white ball players who were built for success in modern white ball cricket. Largely this group has remained similar over the last 5–6 years and England have backed each player, even when slightly out of form. A strategy which has worked well for them and helped them win the last 50 over World Cup.
England have been hit with a few injuries ahead of their campaign. With Jofra Archer, Ben Stokes and Sam Curran all missing through injury. All three would’ve been certanties in a 15 man squad and I expect at least two would’ve been in a starting XI.
Jofra Archer is obviously a huge loss, whether it’s his elite powerplay bowling, above average death bowling or lower order hitting, his quality can’t really be replaced. Despite not excelling in t20’s yet in his career, Ben Stokes would’ve also been in the XI and his inclusion may have allowed England to adopt an extreme bat heavy approach, with four main bowlers plus Stokes, Moeen and Livingstone as part time bowling options. Sam Curran would’ve been a certainty to play for England with Stokes unavailable and possibly even if Stokes had been available. Sam has featured in 11 of England’s last 14 t20I’s and it’s clear England saw him as a key part of their ‘balance.’
Squad:
There weren’t really any huge shocks in the squad announcement. Tymal Mills hasn’t featured for England in t20I’s since the since 2017 but was expected to be in this squad. His absence over the last four years has been predominantly due to injuries but Eoin Morgan explained, even when Mills was available, England often felt it was better for him to play in full tournaments at club/franchise level rather than dragging him out to play smaller t20 bilateral series, where he wouldn’t always be guaranteed to play. For a player with such a delicate fitness record, this makes sense.
Perhaps the only major surprise in the main squad, was the lack of a back up spinner to Adil Rashid. With England deciding to name both David Willey and Chris Woakes in their squad, which was a surprise to many, with most assuming it would be one of the two plus a spinner (Parkinson, Dawson etc) to complete their fifteen man squad. This gives us a clear indication of how we can expect England to build their XI. With the likelihood being that they’ll go with a four man pace attack; with a powerplay specialist (Willey/Woakes), two high pace bowlers (Mills & Wood) who can operate in various phases and Chris Jordan, who bowls a large percentage of his overs at the death.
Notable absentees:
Matt Parkinson - I didn't think it was as essential as some did to have a second leg spinner in the squad but to not include him in the reserves, seems a little harsh. Adil Rashid has been very reliable for England and the chances of a leg spinner getting injured are slim, so the requirement of having a second leg spinner wasn’t paramount. A selection that could’ve gone either way.
Benny Howell - A more left field pick, another who probably would’ve been worth taking as a reserve. Benny has been a reliable performer in t20’s for years now and arguments that it’s only ‘t20 blast’ don’t really hold up with me. The fact no one has really worked him out yet and that he managed to have success in his first season in the Hundred, is testament to his skillset. In addition we’ve also seen big improvements in his batting in recent years, he’d certainly have been a unique option for England to call upon.
Saqib Mahmood - With England likely to field both of their express pacers in their starting line up, having another in reserve wouldn’t have been a bad thing, especially given the injury records of Mark Wood and Tymal Mills. Saqib has enjoyed a breakthrough year in t20’s, firstly in the PSL and then the Hundred, followed by a few games in the Blast to finish his summer. All in all he managed to take 26 wickets in 60 overs, if you include the t20’s he played in for England as well. An excellent strike bowler, who can take wickets in any phase.
Possible XI:
Like quite a few teams, I don’t think there will be too many surprises with this England side. With perhaps the major talking point being who fills that number 7 spot, which will likely be a direct competition between Willey and Woakes. Personally, I’m not sure there’s much in it but I’d probably go with David Willey. He gives a left arm option, plus is a slightly better batter in my view.
I’m not expecting Dawid Malan to play unless England decide to adopt a bat-heavy approach, bringing an extra batter in for one of the five bowlers. Which would leave England with four main bowling options, plus Moeen and Livingstone as part-time options. While I often side towards having as much batting depth as possible, even I wouldn’t be a fan of this. It would likely be whoever plays out of Willey/Woakes that would drop out, which would leave powerplay options with the ball looking extremely thin.
This team isn’t as strong as it could’ve been, with a couple of key players missing, nevertheless most bases are covered and there’s still enough quality in the squad to compete.
Team Strengths
Batting intent - England have a higher boundary percentage than any other side in t20i’s over the last three years. Of course this is somewhat helped by pitches they play on but we also need to give their batters the credit they deserve.
Batting against spin - England have plenty of players capable of attacking spin, with their likely top 5 all striking at above 135 against spin. Even a player like Jason Roy, who is often referred to as being vulnerable against spin, strikes at 144 against spin and is particularly aggressive against it in powerplay’s.
England win the boundary count - Of course this is tied in with the first two points, with some credit also given to their bowlers as well. Winning the boundary count matters and England have the highest boundary percentage differential in t20i’s since the start of 2019, with the exception of Afghanistan, who are an extremely exciting team but quality of opponents has been lower. England’s BP differential during this period is 3.14, which is over 1.5 higher than the next ‘top nation’ with West Indies at 1.55, I haven’t adjusted for sixes though, so you’d expect West Indies would come out much stronger with that.
Team Weaknesses
Bowling attack that doesn’t suit conditions? - We’ve seen spin friendly conditions for IPL matches in the UAE and England look to have a pace heavy attack. In fact, KKR, who are also captained by Morgan have regularly bowled 10+ overs of spin each game. I can definitely sympathise with England in this situation, with the exception of Parkinson there aren’t any obvious options. In general I’m not a huge fan of specialist orthodox spinners. Samit Patel could’ve been an option, due to his recent improvement in power hitting. Other than that I didn’t see too many options for England.
Batting depth not what it once was - With Sam Curran, plus Jofra Archer, who are valuable lower order hitters unavailable, England’s batting depth certainly suffers. In addition the form of Eoin Morgan will be a huge concern, I’m often hesitant to form as a measure but with Morgan it’s been fairly prolonged now and he is also 35 now, so age could be playing a part. I’m not writing him off by any means, he was one of the top t20 batters in the world as recently as 18–24 months ago. Nevertheless elite sport is a cut throat business and I don’t think Morgan would hesitate to drop himself if his form from the IPL continues.
Player Notes
Jason Roy - Expect him to be the more aggressive opener in the partnership, with fast starts on these sort of pitches being extremely valuable. Much stronger against spin than people give him credit for, particularly in powerplay’s, where he strikes at 150 and averages around 30.
Jos Buttler - Has become one of the best t20 openers, averaging almost 40 and striking at 145 in t20’s since 2018. He doesn’t really have any obvious weaknesses, can occasionally start slowly, though that shouldn’t really be an issue in this opening partnership. Leg spin is probably the one bowling type that causes any sort of regular trouble to him, averaging 21 and striking at 135 against this bowling type. If Buttler fires, England will have a good tournament.
Moeen Ali - Not certain to bat at three, him and Bairstow may swap places or England could do the unthinkable and bat Moeen lower down the order at 6/7, which would be a big mistake in my view. As we all know, Moeen is extremely attacking against spin, which has led to many labelling him as a ‘spin hitter.’ This undermines his overall ability as a t20 batter, particularly against pace. In other formats he may have a weakness against pace, in t20’s that isn’t the case. Averaging over 30 and striking at nearly 150, certainly isn’t a weakness. Three looks like the perfect position for Moeen, still gives him freedom to attack in powerplay’s if he enters during that phase, or he comes in after powerplay’s with a platform set and can go crazy from ball one.
His bowling is also underrated in t20’s and with shrewd captaincy he can be an extremely effective match ups bowler. You don’t have to look much further than his recent IPL, where his economy if 6.35 in the 25 overs he has bowled, impressive returns for an off spinner and also testament to how Dhoni has used him. He isn’t a guarantee for four overs every game, nor should he bowl every game but if used correctly he can have a positive impact.
Jonny Bairstow - Another player that has become a sensation white ball batter for England, probably slightly more impactful as an opener, will be required to bat through the middle order for England though. Despite being a great player of spin, his record against SLA isn’t all that impressive, averaging 22 and striking at under 120 since 2018. Is extremely aggressive against leg spin, striking at almost 160. Great player of pace in powerplay’s, hasn’t really shown whether he not he can do it during death overs yet, which would be a more likely requirement batting at four (likely position.)
Liam Livingstone - It feels like his recent IPL is only a small bump in the road. His t20 career trajectory was certainly trending upwards and fast, heading into that tournament, following a sensational season domestically and internationally in the English summer. His six hitting numbers are brilliant and he’s also strong against high pace, as cricviz have tweeted multiple times, he ranks amongst the best. Livingstone is another England middle order players that’s strong against leg spin, striking at 145 and averaging in the mid 30’s. His bowling isn’t phenomenal by any means, in general though it seems to be underused, particularly by teams outside of England. To the point where Glenn Phillips was considered a better ‘match up bowler’ for Rajasthan, which is utterly bizarre in my view.
Eoin Morgan - I feel like every man and his dog has covered Morgan’s recent woes in t20’s, so I’m not really sure its worth delving too deeply into his struggles. What I will say is that it feels naive to completely write off someone that stuck in the mid 150’s across 2018 & 19, hitting a six better than every 10 balls, whilst mainly batting at four & five. He has almost exclusively used himself as a ‘finisher’ in recent times, which based on his death overs strike rate looks to be the best solution. However, he has never been one to consistently smash it from ball one, even stretching back to his good periods of form.
David Willey - He isn’t a perfect fit but I feel like he is the best option in this tournament for England. A strong powerplay bowler, who also gives them a left arm option with bat and ball. His skillset with the ball is well know, a powerplay dominant bowler who looks for swing, with limited effectiveness in other phases. His batting can often be misunderstood, he is most impactful through middle overs, he could be floated up the order if England don’t want two RHB’s at the crease and Morgan doesn’t want to promote himself.
Chris Jordan - Like him or not, he’s definitely going to be in the XI. It feels like he is often over criticised now. His death overs bowling numbers aren’t elite by any means, in fact, far from it but they aren’t awful either. Particularly when considering the standard of pitches he has bowled on in t20i’s for England, have often been extremely favoured towards batting. His death overs economy rate for England is right on average (9.90 vs team average 9.91) in t20i’s since 2018. Often given a role of attempting to close out powerplay’s with the ball by England (by this I mean overs 5 & 6), he has done this relatively successfully, going at 7.5 rpo and taking a wicket better than every 20 balls.
His batting has been fairly solid in t20i’s for a while, though a very limited sample size, he has struck at 160 since 2018 and has hit 20 boundaries in 102 deliveries. This success has seemingly made it into club/franchise cricket, as so far this year he has a strike rate of nearly 150. Jordan’s batting will almost certainly be important with no Jorfa Archer.
Mark Wood - For a guy that hasn't played much t20 cricket in recent years, or in his career for that matter, it feels like he has snuck himself into England’s first choice XI. A strong India tour certainly helped that, where he bowled with serious pace and in powerplay’s more often than people thought. I expect that role to continue into the WC, as England have lost at least three overs of powerplay bowling without Jofra and Sam Curran. I think he’ll be used in a 2/1/1 or potentially 2/2/0 as he hasn’t had much experience bowling at the death in t20's.
Tymal Mills - A very exciting inclusion in the squad for England fans, many of whom have been wanting this selection for a while. Often wasted in powerplay’s, which isn’t his strength at all. Mills should be held back for later in an innings, where he is one of the best in the business. In fact, currently his death overs economy rate in club/franchise cricket is the best for a pace bowler (min 200 balls since 2018.) Arguments about the quality of tournaments he has played in are valid but it’s also hard to prove people wrong if you aren’t given many opportunities in other leagues. Was excellent in the Hundred this summer, going at 6.67 rpo.
Adil Rashid - England and Morgan’s go to spin option and bowler in general. Outstanding economy rate of 7.3 in t20i’s since 2018, as well as a strong strike rate of 18. Even more impressive when you consider pitches that have been played on, as well as the fact that Morgan has often utilised him in different roles, even flirted with using him in and around death overs at times. Mr Reliable.
Dawid Malan - His t20 record for England always looked ominous, when compared to his stats in domestic cricket and franchise competitions. You always got the sense that a drop in performance levels was coming, I’m not sure many expected it to be this severe though. Malan is striking at just over 120 in t20’s since 2020, with a boundary percentage of 16%, which just isn’t enough to get into this highly competitive England side. Unusually poor against SLA for a LHB, averaging 25 and striking in the mid 120’s against this bowling type since 2018.
Chris Woakes - Like Mark Wood, another player who hasn’t played much t20 cricket recently. Woakes has played less than 20 t20 games in the last four years and only two for England, both of which came earlier this year against Sri Lanka. He did very well in these games, nevertheless I’m still surprised he managed to force his way into the squad, he has obviously serisouly impressed England coaches during his time with the ODI squad.
Sam Billings - In general, I don’t rate Billings as highly as some do in t20’s. Personally I feel his game is much better suited to ODI’s and I potentially see him forcing himself into England’s side in that format in the near future. In t20’s, he is quite a slow starter for the positions he often bats (4 and below), when that’s paired with an average boundary percentage it isn’t an ideal combination. Billings’ strike rate in his first 10 balls across his games in the hundred, blast, t20i’s and BBL since 2019 is 107, which isn’t too impressive. He does have relatively strong ‘gears’ in t20’s, so if he can improve at starting his innings it would be massively boost his chances of getting into this England t20 side.
Tom Curran - Have to say I didn’t expect him to find a place in the squad, even when his brother got injured, I was sure England would bring another spinner into their squad. Alas they didn’t and Tom Curran returns to the set up for the umpteenth time. He isn’t an awful t20 player by any means but he has continually struggled with stepping up to higher levels (t20i’s and IPL), going at over 9.8 rpo in these competitions.
Overall I’m not as optimistic as I once would’ve been about this England side. Jofra is a massive loss and England look to pinning their hopes on a formula that has worked for them in completely different conditions to the ones they’ll be faced with in the UAE.
Having said that, from a numbers point of view, England have dominated in most areas of t20 cricket in recent years. Making it difficult to go against them as one of the favourties for the tournament.
Thanks for reading!
Stats: cricmetric
