T20 World Cup preview - New Zealand
New Zealand will be looking to win a major cricket tournament for the first time ever in the upcoming t20 WC. Having come so close to success in the 50 over format, reaching back to back WC finals, firstly losing to Australia in 2015 and tying with England in 2019 but still losing overall due to a boundary countback. It was a harsh outcome for New Zealand; a side that has become increasingly popular amongst neutral fans.
Considering how close they’ve come to success in the 50 over format, they’re yet to really nail t20’s as a side. Failing to make it past the semi-finals in the previous t20 world cups. Last time out in 2016, they were beaten fairly convincingly by England in their semi-final match.
Only 7 of their squad from that tournament remain, of course this includes the likes of Guptill, Williamson, Boult and Southee, all of whom have vast international experience and haven been stalwarts of NZ cricket for over a decade now. The others that remain are Ish Sodhi, Mitchell Santner and Adam Milne (reserves), a few from that 2016 side have retired and a couple may feel they were unlucky to miss out on this squad.
Expanding on that, here is the squad that New Zealand have picked for this tournament:
In my view, this New Zealand squad could’ve been much better than it actually is and there are a few big selection choices or lack of for that matter. All in all, it looks like a fairly conservative squad, opting for ‘consistent performers’ rather than players with high upside.
Notable absentees:
Adam Milne - Features in the squad but only as a reserve, which frankly, is a bizarre decision. Only Lockie Ferguson and Trent Boult (on one of his good days) can even compete with Milne as a t20 bowler. Not to mention he is a genuine multi-phase bowler, which is something New Zealand mostly lack amongst their fast bowling ranks. The absence of Milne may also have a negative impact on Lockie Ferguson, who tends to operate well at the end of powerplay’s and through middle overs, commonly known as an ‘enforcer,’ without Milne it may force NZ to hold Lockie back. Thus taking at least one over away from his preferred bowling phases.
Finn Allen - An intent machine in the truest sense, with a t20 boundary percentage of over 25%, it’s a massive shame we won’t get to see Allen in this tournament. It’s something New Zealand also massively lack, with many of their players being fairly cautious starters (Williamson, Conway and Phillips), Guptill tries to play with intent from ball one but those innings aren’t as regular as they used to be.
Colin Munro - This one was maybe slightly more understandable, as he has been out of the international fold for a while. His numbers have dropped off in the last couple of years, a strike rate of 148 in 2018 & 19 to 133 since the start of 2020, though his average has increased in that time by about five runs. Despite the drop off, I still think Munro has something to offer to this NZ side, even if he isn’t a guaranteed starter. It would be nice to have another LHB top order option, in addition to Devon Conway.
Possible XI:
Unless New Zealand throw a curve ball, the only major selection debate seems to be between Southee and Jamieson for the third front line pace option. They’re similar bowlers in a way, in the sense that they both heavily favour powerplay’s and both have poor records at the death. I guess it will come down to whether they want the experience of Southee, who has played in many major tournaments for NZ, or the uniqueness of Jamieson, due to his abnormally high release point and also slightly better hitting ability.
Other than that debate, the rest seems fairly straight forward. In all honesty, it doesn’t look like a spectacular team. It’s a side that looks fairly limited, especially from a batting point of view. If they felt they needed extra batting depth, bringing in Daryl Mitchell for Sodhi could be an option. Using Neesham/Mitchell as the fifth bowler, which would only leave them with one spin option plus Williamson/Phillips, who aren’t exactly ideal options.
If I was picking their side, I’d have probably gone for something like this:
Team Strengths
High floor - The squad NZ have picked, although cautious, looks to be relatively consistent and should NZ competing in most games. Particularly with batting from the likes of Conway, Williamson and Phillips, these are all adaptable cricketers and should see them reach par/slightly above par scores in almost every game they play.
Powerplay bowling - As mentioned earlier, even without Milne their powerplay bowling should still be the strongest component of their bowling unit. Having one of Jamieson/Southee as well as Boult, with Lockie Ferguson closing out powerplay’s, it’s certainly their strong suit with the ball. Ultimately it’s essential that NZ do well in this phase, if not, with what looks to be a below average spin attack and mostly poor death bowlers, it would spell danger.
A few strong players of spin - Conway and Phillips are both good players of spin, while Williamson is very secure against spin but doesn’t score as quickly as you’d like. Guptill is also decent against spin, particularly in powerplay’s, striking at over 140 and averaging 45. Having a number of players that are good against spin is likely to help in UAE conditions.
Team Weaknesses
Spin bowling - They have a spin attack which looks to be sub par in comparison to most teams. The majority of sides that will play a leg spinner/mystery spinner have better options than Sodhi and whilst Santner is adequate but unspectacular, though he may prove a handful on certain pitches.
Death Overs bowling - None of the pace bowlers in their main squad are strong death bowlers. Jamieson, Southee and Boult all have relatively poor records in this phase, though Boult has improved slightly. It’s a similar case for Lockie, although his death over numbers look impressive, at the time of researching stats for this, he has bowled under 25% of his overs at the death. A death overs economy rate of under 8 is impressive but if you look at his record in IPL games, its just over 10. So it will be interesting to see how he goes, given he is likely to be NZ’s most prominent bowler in this phase.
Lack of batting depth - NZ are in a similar spot to Australia in regards to their batting depth. After the six batters in their team, they’ve got a SLA bowler, with limited batting utility in t20’s and one pace bowler who is a decent enough hitter for a bowler.
Flat track bullies? - New Zealand have almost exclusively played at home since 2018, in conditions that are heavily favoured towards batting. A tag that’s often given to England, regarding their white ball success in recent years, is perhaps even more applicable to New Zealand. Having played only 9 of 46 t20i’s since the start of 2018. This is more concerning when you realise what conditions in the UAE are going to be like. Based on IPL games and there have been exceptions, however, pitches have mostly been receptive to turn with invariable bounce, which has made it difficult for batting, particularly in day games. Luckily for NZ quite a few of their players have been with IPL teams in the UAE already, although on the batting side of things, no one really had any sort of success.
Low ceiling - High floor but it looks to be a relatively low ceiling in comparison to some of the other ‘big sides.’ I just don’t see their peak being anywhere near the level of sides like India, England and West Indies. It’s very much reminiscent of their 2019 WC side, where they had to scrap for each and every win. Will it be effective here? I’m not so sure.
Player Notes
Martin Guptill - Onus looks to be on him to get NZ off to fast starts, in the absence of both Allen and Munro. Which he has done for them but as I’ve mentioned, home games in NZ have been extremely favourable to batters. He has only played two t20i’s away from home since the start of 2018, which makes it difficult to judge how successful he’ll be. Guptill hasn’t played much franchise cricket lately either, apart from a stint with Karachi Kings in the PSL earlier this year, his last stint abroad was with Worcestershire in the t20 blast in 2019. In the games he played, he didn’t enjoy a successful PSL, only managing 69 runs in six matches.
Devon Conway - Conway would’ve been an unknown quantity to a lot of cricket fans 12–18 months ago, his rise since has been rapid. It’s no fluke as he’d been scoring bucket loads of runs in domestic cricket for a while. What’s probably been more of a surprise is how well he has done in t20i’s, averaging nearly 60 and striking at 150 in his first 11 matches. Which looks like Dawid Malan levels of over performance to start his international t20 career.
Pitches in the UAE may suit Conway as he is a very strong player of spin, particularly orthodox spin (SLA/Off spin, averaging over 100 and striking at 145 against these bowling types. Another reason why pitches could suit him, is that he is often a fairly conservative starter, if scores are going to be on the lower side, this allows him to be low risk early in his innings.
Kane Williamson - Potentially controversial opinion here, I don’t think Williamson is a great t20 player. Even if you compared him to other ‘anchors,’ there is probably quite a few I’d pick ahead of him. He does a have some plus points; a strong average against spin and generally has pretty good gears through the latter half of the middle overs phase, other than that, there isn’t loads to be excited about. Striking at 130 in t20i’s isn’t all that impressive, given NZ conditions and he generally doesn’t make use of powerplay’s when he bats in them.
Glenn Phillips - One of the better boundary hitters in this side, with good six hitting number as well. Probably slightly better at the top of the order but due to lack of options, will definitely bat in the middle order. Phillips is great at accelerating through phases and also had good stats against spin, which is impressive, when you consider a large chunk of his games have come in CPL, a tournament that has had some poor pitches in recent seasons to say the least. Recently I noticed, Phillips is another in this side, that tends to start slowly, his t20 international stats had hidden that. Striking at around 115 in his first 10 balls.
Tim Seifert - His place in the side, looks to mostly be a case of there not being many other options. Seifert doesn’t look ideal as a potential number 5, he has average boundary hitting numbers and a poor death overs record, striking at just 152. Which isn’t surprising, when you look at his t20 record vs pace, averaging only 23 and striking at 130, which has to be one of the poorer records for an international player.
Jimmy Neesham - Not a world class cricket by any means, however he seems to have a great mindset towards t20 cricket. Generally plays unselfishly and looks to play whatever role will benefit his team the most, often plays with intent from ball one. His bowling is limited but could be more difficult than normal to get away, on trickier pitches, his cross seamers into the pitch could prove useful.
Mitchell Santner - The groups have worked well in a way for New Zealand, they’ve managed to avoid England and West Indies, two sides that at least three LHB in their top 7’s. Comparatively Pakistan only have one front line LH batter - Fakhar Zaman who isn’t guaranteed to play, while Afghanistan are only likely to have two. This will likely increase the effectiveness of Santner, who is unsurprisingly more economical against LHB’s, though he is better against RHB’s than a lot of SLA bowlers. Santner has done a decent job for New Zealand, going at just under 8 rpo in home t20i’s since 2018, which is better than the average economy rate for a spinner during that time, of 8.48 rpo.
Tim Southee - I’m not sure who will play between Southee and Jamieson. I don’t think either are brilliant options, Southee may get to the nod due to his ‘experience’ and performances for NZ in other formats, which aren’t valid reasons to select a player. He is a strong powerplay bowler, with limited use in other phases. Will always bowl two, sometimes three overs in the powerplay if he plays. On another note, we haven’t seen much swing, even with the new ball for IPL matches in the UAE, this definitely hinders Southee.
Ish Sodhi - Relatively expensive for a wrist spinner, going at just over 8 rpo in t20’s since 2018, although that’s partly due to bowling a few overs in powerplay’s and at the death. During the middle overs, that economy rate decreases to around 7.6 rpo.
Lockie Ferguson - Expect that he’ll likely have to bowl more at the death than he prefers doing. Shouldn’t be needed much in the first six overs but might be used to close out powerplay’s, which is something he has done well. Bowling during overs 5 & 6, with 14 wickets in 34 overs at an economy of 6.5, excellent returns in a period of the game where teams are often looking to be more aggressive. Ideally with that one over towards the end of the powerplay, you’d then use him with two through the middle and one of the death but due to their team composition I’d say a 1–1–2 role would be more likely.
Trent Boult - An improved t20 cricket, with his economy rate in the last couple of years being far superior to what it was before that. His main strengths are still as a powerplay bowler, with an expensive death overs economy rate, though this has improved in 2020 & 21, dropping to around 9.8 rpo from nearly 11 rpo in 2018 & 19. It’s still not amazing but certainly much better than it was. Expect him to be used in a 2–1–1 role.
Kyle Jamieson - Has shown decent potential as a t20 bowler in New Zealand’s domestic competition (Super Smash), particularly as a powerplay bowler, however the quality of that competition is fairly low and there’s rarely any overseas players. Jamieson has struggled to step up to higher levels so far, going at 9.7 rpo and with a mediocre strike rate of 26 in his IPL/T20i matches since his debut at the end of last year.
Mark Chapman - Again, another player that has struggled to step up to higher levels. Chapman has managed 155 runs in 13 innings, across his CPL/T20i innings, with an average of under 15 and strike rate of 128. At domestic level he has done well, averaging 35 and striking at almost 150 since the start of 2018. The most impressive part of his domestic campaigns has been his striking against spin, striking at 170 with a boundary percentage of 22%.
Daryl Mitchell - Could play if NZ decide they want a side with extra batting depth but otherwise looks to mostly be a back up for Neesham. Not an amazing boundary hitter, decent six hitter though and a good strike rotator. Strikes at over 150 against pace and mid 120’s against spin, weak against the ball turning away.
Todd Astle - Seems to mainly be in the squad as a back up to Sodhi, I don’t see any scenario in which NZ will play two leg spinners in the same side. This spot in the squad could’ve been put to better use in my opinion.
I have to say I’m not a huge fan of this New Zealand squad and believe it could’ve been a lot better. Personally I think their squad selection leaves them facing an uphill battle when trying to reach the semi-final’s, with Pakistan and India looking like they have a better squad.
Thanks for reading!
Stats: cricmetric
