World Cup Preview - Netherlands
Netherlands making their first World Cup appearance since 2011 is both a cool and unique story. In their previous World Cup outings they’ve managed just two wins in 20 matches, across four different tournaments. Will they fare better this time around?
Based on recent evidence, no. Despite earning a place at the World Cup through the qualifier tournament, Netherlands have struggled against higher quality opposition in ODI’s lately. Technically they haven’t won any of their 20 matches vs top ten ranked nations since July 2019, though they did beat West Indies in a super over victory at the aforementioned qualifier tournament. These recent performances clearly aren’t ideal when heading into a tournament where they’re the only team involved outside the top ten in the rankings.
Having said that, they’ll take a lot of confidence from their recent performances in the qualifier tournament, winning 5/8 matches, with two of those losses coming vs Sri Lanka. A tournament which had a few magical moments from a Netherlands perspective, including a tied game, when chasing 374 vs West Indies, which was followed by Logan Van Beek hitting Jason Holder for 30 runs in the super over. And then later on in the tournament, Bas de Leede put in one of the best all-round performances vs Scotland, scoring 123 and taking 5–52 in the same game. Such moments will surely increase belief in the dressing room.
Additionally, they’ll have the further boost of some returning players, who didn’t play in that tournament due to county cricket contracts.
Squad:
Notable absentees:
- Fred Klaassen - A big miss for the Netherlands. Klaassen has been the most economical pace bowler for them in the last cycle (Min 50 overs) and is also a key bowler for them in the powerplay, boasting the best powerplay economy rate and average of their pace bowlers. The variety he adds is also crucial, without him, they’re largely a team of right arm pace bowlers and orthodox spinners - a wrist spinner isn’t guaranteed in their XI.
- Tom Cooper - Cooper was re-introduced to the team in 2022, after a nine year break and did reasonably well in the appearances he made; scoring 343 runs in nine innings (AV 38, SR 81). It’s a little surprising he wasn’t included in the squad, though Netherlands have quite a few middle order options, most of whom are a lot younger than Cooper so I can understand the stance they’ve taken.
Squad thoughts:
The inclusions of Colin Ackermann, Roelof van Der Merwe and Paul van Meekeren are significant, all three have a wealth of experience and undoubtedly improve the squad.
Netherlands have typically been quite a defensive bowling side and it looks like it’ll be no different based on the squad they’ve picked. This is where they’ll really miss Klaassen, he could’ve offered a point of difference, as a genuine wicket taking threat with the new ball, opening up games for their spinners and hit-the-deck pace bowlers through the middle overs.
Of the non-Asian teams in the competition, Netherlands comfortably bowl more spin than any other team, bowling over 45% of their deliveries through spinners - the next highest is South Africa with 39%. I’d expect Aryan Dutt and Roelof van der Merwe to be mainstays in their XI, while they also have Colin Ackermann, who bowls better than part-time off-spin.
From a batting perspective, there’s actually quite a bit to like. Scott Edwards is obviously the key player and has genuinely impressive numbers over the last couple of years, particularly against spin. While a couple of the other players are better than their overall numbers suggest and have shown signs of progression in the last 12 months or so (Vikramjit Singh & de Leede. And Ackermann further strengthens an already solid middle order. Scoring rate might be an issue at times but there shouldn’t be too many games where they’re blown away as a batting unit. Of course, it’ll likely happen at some point but I think that’ll be the case for most batting sides during the tournament.
Possible XI:
With returning players and the fact that Netherlands haven’t played an ODI match in almost three months, it makes it quite tricky to predict an XI. Not playing a match in so long is disappointing considering the amount of ODI cricket that’s been played recently, it shouldn’t be so difficult for other nations to organise a tour with them. It just makes an already task, even trickier for them, potentially coming in undercooked.
Despite the issues, I actually think most of the players in the XI are settled starters. With Wesley Barresi being the player with his starting spot under most pressure:
Barresi batted at 3 in their warm up game, though I’m not necessarily sure this is the best move as it shifts Ackermann and Edwards lower down the order than you’d like. If they dropped Barresi and pushed either Ackermann or Bas de Leede to number 3, it would allow them to get one of their wrist spin options into the XI (Shiraz Ahmed/Zulfiqar) giving them some much needed variety. This potentially weakens their batting depth but both Van der Merwe and Van Beek are capable batters so I don’t think it’s too much of an issue.
The only other debate would be whether Van Meekeren comes straight back into the XI. Ryan Klein played six matches in the qualifier tournament and did well; taking nine wickets, at an economy rate of 4.4 rpo, so could get a run in the side first.
Team strengths:
Team balance - Netherlands have two very useful bowling options amongst heir top five batting options (De Leede & Ackermann), this gives them a lot of flexibility with their XI. They can either go down the batting-heavy route or pick an extra bowler, giving them added variety and the ability to exploit matchups better.
Batting depth - If they go with the team above, Netherlands actually have really good batting depth. Logan van Beek showcased his power hitting in the qualifier tournament, while Van der Merwe has played plenty of useful cameo’s for Somerset over the years and could be carded at number 9. If the batting above them stands firm, Netherlands should be able to score at a reasonable rate at the death, with Edwards and Nidaminuru also being decent options in this phase.
Solid top order - Batting against the new ball hasn’t been the easiest over the last 12–18 months and plenty of teams have struggled. Since the start of 2022, Netherlands have had the 5th highest average in this phase (of teams at the World Cup) and they’ve also scored at a better rate than four other teams. Relatively, the partnership of O’Dowd and Vikramjit Singh has done a good job.
Team weaknesses:
Death overs bowling - A couple of their players do have a decent record at the death but I’d expect this is largely against the ‘weaker’ nations, death bowling looks like an obvious weakness for Netherlands at this tournament. In fact, if we look at their stats by phase vs top six nations & ‘other’ nations, the biggest discrepancy clearly comes when bowling at the death:
The % change is fairly consistent in the first three phases, ranging from 12–15% but this jumps to just shy of 29% at the death. Their bowlers have clearly struggled with the increased power hitting quality that the top nations can boast, especially against pace.
Powerplay threat - The absence of Klaassen leaves them searching for powerplay options. Expect Logan van Beek to take the new ball but his partner is less certain. It’s never really been a role that Van Meekeren has done in any format, he’s more of a hit-the-deck bowler through the middle overs. Aryan Dutt has a decent powerplay record (small sample size) and also performed this role in their warm up game, so he could be considered. However, he doesn’t carry much wicket taking threat and taking early wickets could be a struggle for the Dutch.
Lack of LHB’s - In the last cycle, Netherlands had the lowest percentage of deliveries faced by LHB’s, coming in at under 20%. Vikramjit Singh is the only frontline LHB in the squad and this puts pressure on their middle order vs SLA, which is likely to play a big part in the tournament. Unsurprisingly they’re one of the slowest scoring sides vs SLA, though they aren’t the slowest, with Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka all scoring at a slower rate. Scott Edwards has been their fastest scorer vs SLA (Min 50 balls) and I’d be a little concerned if he ends up batting at number 6.
Weak vs off-spin? - Considering the above and the amount of deliveries faced by RHB’s, you’d assume they’d have a decent record vs off-spin but that isn’t the case:
They score at an okay rate vs off-spin, though it should be better given the amount of RHB’s they have. The average is what’s most concerning, it’s comfortably the lowest of any team in the tournament and if they can’t counter/reliably bat vs at least one type of orthodox spin, they’ll have problems.
Bowling variety - Their orthodox spinners tend to be quite economical and have been a strength for them at times in the past. However, relying on so many overs of orthodox spin could cause issues vs some of the better nations. Conditions are likely to be good for batting throughout the tournament and teams like England, South Africa, Australia and India won’t be afraid to take on spin in these conditions. If they don’t play a wrist spinner, they might struggle to take wickets at times, while also leaking runs.
Player stats sheet:
Matchup sheet:
Summary
Realistically, Netherlands have minimal chances of doing anything significant in this tournament but it’s an opportunity for them to show their progression as a side. In the qualifiers, they proved they could outplay mid-tier sides and now they get to test themselves vs the best.
What would constitute success for Netherlands in this tournament? It’s a tough question to answer. Their recent record isn’t encouraging, though I don’t think it would be fair to write them off completely because of that. With improving younger players, plus returning members of the squad there’s no reason why they can’t compete in the majority of their games.
This tournament will be about more than the number of wins they can put on the board. Instead, focusing on the development opportunities it can give some of their players, and how much they can learn from it as a squad will leave them in a good place for the future.
Thanks for reading!
Stats: cricmetric
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